As Donald Trump prepares for a second term as US president, early signals suggest that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s hopes for improved relations with Washington could face challenges as the president-elect reportedly considers Florida Senator Marco Rubio for secretary of state and Congressman Michael Waltz for national security adviser, both known for their anti-Turkey stance on key issues.
Rubio, a longtime advocate of hawkish foreign policy, and Waltz, a former member of the United States Army Special Forces (colloquially known as Green Berets) and staunch Trump supporter, are both vocal critics of Turkey’s policies in Syria and elsewhere.
Some analysts say their influence on US foreign policy could complicate Erdoğan’s agenda, which relies heavily on a transactional approach to diplomacy and personal rapport with Trump.
Rubio, who made an unsuccessful bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, has repeatedly opposed the Turkish government’s policies in the past, particularly on human rights issues.
Rubio is known for his tough stances on China and Iran and also criticized the Erdoğan government for its crackdown on dissidents.
In a notable 2021 letter co-authored with a Democratic senator, Rubio led 54 US senators in condemning the human rights situation in Turkey, specifically supporting self-exiled former NBA player Enes Kanter Freedom, who is known for his staunch anti-Erdoğan stance and is wanted by Ankara on terrorism charges. The sports star denies the accusations.
The letter also strongly disapproved of Turkey’s actions against Kurdish groups in Syria, which the US has supported in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.
Waltz has also been a prominent supporter of US cooperation with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria.
Turkey views the YPG as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is classified as a terrorist organization in Turkey and many Western nations, and has repeatedly spoken out against American support for the Kurdish fighters.
Experts note that both Rubio and Waltz have repeatedly spoken out against key elements of Erdoğan’s agenda and warn that this could complicate relations between Ankara and Washington.
According to Ömer Murat, a former Turkish diplomat and foreign policy expert, Rubio is one of the most prominent US lawmakers to oppose Erdoğan’s actions.
Murat pointed out on X that Rubio led efforts to obtain signatures on a 2021 letter condemning the human rights situation in Turkey. “Rubio was not only one of the signatories, but also one of the two senators who drafted the letter,” Murat said, adding that the letter explicitly supported the NBA star Freedom and openly criticized Turkey’s military actions against Kurdish forces in Syria.
Ragıp Soylu, a journalist with expertise in Turkish foreign relations, pointed to Waltz’s strong support for Kurdish allies, adding that Waltz had even proposed special US visas for YPG fighters.
Yunus Paksoy, a US-based Turkish journalist, reiterated this point, stating that Waltz had called the YPG “our best allies in the Middle East after Israel” and suggested sanctions against Turkish officials over Turkey’s 2019 military operations against Kurdish positions in Syria.
ÖNEMLİ | Trump'ın Ulusal Güvenlik Danışmanı Mike Waltz oldu
-YPG/PKK için "Ortadoğu'da İsrail'den sonraki en iyi müttefiklerimiz" diyor.
-ABD'nin Suriye'den çekilmesine şiddetle karşı. “Kürt müttefiklerimizle birlikte durmalıyız” dedi.
-Suriye’den çekilme fikrine “stratejik… pic.twitter.com/lOyrYnzRLA
— Yunus Paksoy (@yunuspaksoy) November 12, 2024
Erdoğan’s optimism and past rapport with Trump
After Trump’s recent election victory, Erdoğan was quick to congratulate him and called him his friend. Other Turkish officials expressed hope that the transactional relationship that characterized Trump’s first term would resume.
Political analyst Sinan Ülgen, director of The Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) think tank, explained to the Ekathimerini news website that Ankara probably expects “a US policy reversal in the region and there will be a major effort to essentially convince Trump to withdraw US forces from Syria and end the relationship with the YPG.”
According to Ülgen, “Their chemistry is good and Trump seems to like Erdoğan and appreciate his style of leadership, just as he does with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.”
Erdoğan’s supporters recall the previous Trump administration’s decision to greenlight a Turkish military operation in Syria in 2019, an example of Trump’s flexibility in US-Turkey relations.
Speaking on The Greek Current podcast of Ekathimerini, Nicholas Danforth, a Turkey expert and analyst at the national security platform War on the Rocks, warned that while Erdoğan may see Trump as a favorable counterpart, he may overlook the structural challenges that persist in the relationship. Danforth warned that a “turbulent period in Turkish-American relations” could be ahead, no matter how good the chemistry between the two leaders may be. Danforth pointed to key issues, such as US military support for the YPG and Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia, which have caused friction in US-Turkey relations over the past decade.
Numerous experts warn that the positions of Rubio and Waltz could run counter to Erdoğan’s ambitions. İmdat Öner, a former Turkish diplomat, argued on X that Rubio “would be the last person Erdoğan would want to see at the head of the US State Department.” Öner said Rubio’s criticism of Erdoğan in the past, particularly over his government’s handling of Venezuela, showed that he was ready to challenge Turkey on foreign policy.
Mehmet Demirbaş, another former Turkish diplomat, argued on X that Trump’s return could exacerbate economic strains on Turkey, which has already suffered from inflation and currency depreciation in the last several years.
Eğer Trump vaad ettiği politikaları yerine getirirse ve bu politikalar küresel olarak bir ticaret savaşı/misillemesini tetiklerse bundan en çok zarar görecek ülkeler mevcut küresel ticarette ticaret fazlası veren ülkeler olacaktır.
Bu çerçevede Almanya, Japonya, Güney Kore ve…
— Mehmet Demirbaş (@MDmehmetdmrbs) November 12, 2024
Demirbaş elaborated that Trump’s expected focus on an “America-first” trade policy could “limit Turkey’s access to US markets,” which would add to Turkey’s financial challenges.
Another area where Turkey could face obstacles is the Middle East, where US policy under Trump could realign in favor of regional powers opposed to Turkish interests. Analysts note that Erdoğan’s support for Palestinian groups, such as Hamas, is likely to be at odds with Trump’s expected stance.
Trump is expected to prioritize support for Israel. Erdoğan’s vocal advocacy of the Palestinian cause could put Turkey on a collision course with the US.
Danforth echoes this sentiment, pointing out that a strengthened relationship between the US and Israel would likely lead to friction. Danforth noted that Trump’s strategy in the region could also make it more difficult for Turkey to influence US actions related to Syria.
Speaking to Ekathimerini, political analyst Wolfango Piccoli argued that Erdoğan could pursue a strategy of “agree to disagree” with the new administration. This approach, Piccoli said, would allow Erdoğan to selectively engage on issues that align with Trump’s agenda while minimizing friction where they disagree. Erdoğan’s past experience with Trump combined with his belief in the importance of personal diplomacy could lead him to pursue dialog on less controversial issues, such as mediating the Ukraine conflict, which he sees as a strategic opportunity.
Turkish officials see Erdoğan as having a unique position to act as a mediator in the Ukraine-Russia conflict as he communicates openly with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Turkish officials hope this could lead to reconstruction contracts for Turkish companies and an improved international reputation for Erdoğan as a peace broker.
According to Danforth, Erdoğan’s transactional diplomacy may have limited success with an ideologically aligned Trump team.
Political analyst Haşim Tekineş notes that unlike the Biden administration, which pursued a policy of institutional diplomacy, the Trump administration’s relations with the Erdoğan government could be more “unstable.”
As Erdoğan seeks to revitalize his relationship with Trump, experts warn that the potential important roles of Rubio and Waltz signal that Washington could take a tougher stance on key Turkish concerns. If these appointments take place, Erdoğan may have to adjust his expectations and seek limited, issue-specific cooperation rather than a full diplomatic reboot.