Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has congratulated Donald Trump on his US presidential election victory, but skepticism remains over whether a second Trump term will noticeably improve strained relations between the US and Turkey, according to Turkish media reports.
In a statement on X, Erdoğan called Trump a “friend” and highlighted the significance of US-Turkey ties, saying cooperation between Ankara and Washington could help resolve pressing geopolitical issues, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
“I congratulate my friend Donald Trump on his re-election as president of the United States after a hard-fought presidential race,” Erdoğan said. “I hope this new term will be an opportunity for closer relations between Turkey and the United States, and that it will help to address some of the world’s most urgent challenges.”
Erdoğan’s gesture signals his hope for renewed cooperation, but many experts doubt that Trump’s return to office will resolve major sticking points in bilateral relations.
During Trump’s previous term, disagreements over defense policy, regional alliances and economic sanctions deepened, creating an uneasy dynamic between the two NATO allies. Despite Erdoğan’s attempts to reinvigorate relations, the diplomatic problems that characterized Trump’s first term — including Turkey’s controversial purchase of Russian missile systems and US support for Kurdish forces in Syria — are likely to remain.
Trump’s foreign policy style, known for its unpredictability, has yielded mixed results for Ankara. While his decision to withdraw US forces from parts of Syria has been seen as beneficial for Turkey’s security operations, it has also destabilized parts of the region and complicated US policy in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). For Ankara, Trump’s transactional approach offered short-term benefits, but the lack of a consistent strategy left critical disputes unresolved.
The most significant rift in relations remains Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which led to Turkey’s exclusion from the US F-35 fighter jet program during Trump’s administration. Although Erdoğan could hope for more flexibility from Trump on this issue, analysts doubt that the US stance on Turkey’s defense decisions will change, especially as Washington continues to view Ankara’s deepening ties with Moscow with concern.
Moreover, Trump’s economic sanctions against Turkey in 2018, which targeted Turkish officials and sharply devalued the lira, have left lingering resentment and highlighted the fragility of economic cooperation between the two countries. Erdoğan has long blamed these sanctions for damaging the Turkish economy, and there are fears that Trump’s return could result in similar punitive measures if relations deteriorate again.
Another reason complicating Erdoğan’s hopes is Trump’s strong support for Israel, which often clashes with Turkey’s posture in the region. As tensions escalate in the Middle East, particularly over the Gaza conflict and Israel’s regional influence, Trump’s policies could put Turkey in a difficult position and strain Ankara’s ambitions as a regional power broker.
Observers believe that while Erdoğan may publicly celebrate Trump’s return, the broader relationship between the US and Turkey is unlikely to improve. Instead, Trump’s second term could bring more friction as both leaders pursue opposing agendas in an already fragile alliance.