Bünyamin Tekin
A recent thaw in EU-Turkey relations is showing signs of strain as Brussels acknowledges Ankara’s value in European security, defense and regional diplomacy but remains reluctant to give Turkey a place inside the bloc’s decision-making structures because of distrust, democratic backsliding and disputes over Cyprus, Greece and foreign policy alignment.
The debate intensified after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at an April 19 meeting in Hamburg that the European Union must complete enlargement so the continent does not fall under “Russian, Turkish or Chinese influence.”
The remark triggered anger in Ankara and criticism from some European figures, forcing the European Commission to clarify that Turkey remains “an undisputed economic and political partner in the region.”
But the controversy came along with another signal that unsettled Ankara: Turkey was absent from an informal EU leaders’ summit in Cyprus last week, where European leaders also met with regional partners from the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
The dispute has renewed debate over whether the EU wants Turkey as a strategic partner, a useful outsider or a country kept away from Europe’s institutional core.
Former Turkish diplomat Haşim Tekineş, a policy analyst at the Institute for Diplomacy and Economy (InstituDE), told Turkish Minute that EU-Turkey relations have improved in recent years but largely because the relationship has become less centered on Turkey’s stalled membership process.
“In fact, in recent years there has been a significant improvement in relations between the EU and Turkey,” Tekineş said.
He noted that longstanding institutional and economic cooperation, the war in Ukraine, Syria and other geopolitical priorities have pushed the two sides closer.
But he added that the shift away from Turkey’s EU membership perspective also made democracy and human rights less central to day-to-day diplomacy.
“The EU membership perspective falling into the background also made issues such as human rights and democracy less of a problem,” Tekineş said.
According to Tekineş, EU countries want to deepen this type of relationship with Turkey. Disputes in areas such as the Balkans can be managed as long as Turkey remains an outside partner, he argued.
But the same model also reveals Brussels’ reluctance to treat Turkey as part of Europe’s institutional future.
“This type of relationship sees Turkey not as a European partner but as a foreign partner,” he said.
Tekineş argued that Turkey could contribute to European security and the defense industry, but Brussels does not want Turkey inside the EU’s institutional structure, or at least shows “serious reluctance” about that prospect.
Authoritarianism, human rights problems and ideological differences matter less when Turkey is treated as a foreign actor, he explained, but would become central problems if Turkey were part of EU decision-making.
He pointed to Poland and Hungary as examples of how governments with views at odds with the EU mainstream can affect the bloc’s internal functioning, noting that Turkey, like Hungary under Viktor Orbán, uses the strategic benefits of its position, including those linked to NATO membership.
“Naturally, I think the Europeans, who have only recently gotten rid of Orbán, will not include [President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan in the decision-making mechanism for continental security,” Tekineş said.
Conflict areas such as the Balkans, the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean can be managed when Turkey is an outside partner, he added. If Turkey were inside the European system, those disputes would become internal European security issues and could paralyze decision-making.
Enes Esen, a former Turkish diplomat and researcher at InstituDE, said Turkey’s EU accession process has been stalled for almost a decade and that there is no realistic expectation of a breakthrough in the short term.
EU leaders have raised concerns that the Turkish government is moving further away from the bloc’s accession criteria, including human rights, democracy and political rights, Esen noted, concerns that have grown because of the increasing pace of arrests of opposition mayors.
“At this point, EU leaders have largely accepted that Turkey is unlikely to change course, and there is realistically no prospect for a breakthrough in accession talks in the short term,” Esen told Turkish Minute.
As a result, EU-Turkey relations have moved to a transactional basis focused on migration, Turkey’s security cooperation over the war in Ukraine and economic ties, he said.
“EU leaders consider Turkey a necessary and valuable partner in foreign policy and the economy,” he added.
But Esen stressed that EU leaders are not comfortable with Turkey’s foreign policy. He cited the EU’s latest enlargement report, which found that Turkey’s alignment rate with EU foreign policy statements and council sanctions decisions fell to 4 percent in 2025 from 6 percent in 2024.
The EU is also uneasy about Turkey’s posture in the eastern Mediterranean, he noted.
“In this context, Ursula von der Leyen’s warning about ‘Russian, Turkish or Chinese influence’ is not really an anomaly in EU thinking.”
Turkey’s security ties with the EU may face turbulence, he warned. Countries such as Italy and Germany are more willing to deepen security ties with Turkey, while France, Greece and Cyprus remain opposed to Turkey’s involvement in the EU security architecture.
On Turkey’s absence from the Cyprus summit, Esen acknowledged the omission was notable given Turkey’s role in Ukraine and the Middle East but attributed it largely to the venue.
“Turkey does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus, and it was never realistic that a Turkish government would attend an event held there,” he said. “Had the summit taken place in a different country, Turkey would most likely have been represented.”
Cyprus’s EU term presidency ends at the beginning of July. Greece will hold the EU presidency in the second half of 2027, raising the possibility that disputes involving Turkey could again shape the bloc’s agenda.
Türkiye ile Avrupa Birliği (AB) ne birbirinden kopabiliyor ne gerçek bir işbirliği geliştirebiliyor.
Sorun ortak çıkarların olmaması değil; ortak çıkarları stratejik kazanıma çevirecek siyasal iradenin olmaması.
AB, tarihsel bir yeniden yapılanma sürecinde.
Transatlantik…
— Namık Tan (@NamikTan) April 28, 2026
Retired Turkish ambassador Namık Tan, a lawmaker from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), wrote in a post on X that Turkey and the EU “can neither break away from each other nor develop real cooperation.”
The problem is not the lack of shared interests but the lack of political will to turn those interests into strategic gains, Tan argued.
He described the EU as going through a historic restructuring process because of uncertainty in transatlantic ties, the perceived threat from Russia, competition with China, energy vulnerability and rising defense costs.
Those pressures, he wrote, offer Turkey major opportunities because of its location, NATO membership, defense capacity, production potential and influence from the Black Sea to the eastern Mediterranean and from the Caucasus to the Middle East. But those opportunities are being wasted, he argued.
Turkey’s ability to build strong ties with Europe depends on democracy, the rule of law, institutional predictability and shared values, Tan said. He blamed the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government’s authoritarian course for making it nearly impossible to establish a shared political language, direction and foreign policy basis with the EU.
“As a result, let alone reviving the full membership perspective, Turkey cannot achieve concrete gains in any area,” Tan said.
The customs union cannot be updated, Europe’s search for industry, defense and supply chains cannot be turned into a strong Turkish negotiation strategy, and no binding structure has been established even though Turkey crossed an initial threshold under the “Made in Europe” framework, he noted.
Tan also argued that the EU lacks a coherent Turkey policy. Europe sees Turkey’s importance, he said, but opposition to Turkey is used by populist politicians for domestic politics, while Cyprus, migration debates and pressure from the far right narrow the bloc’s room for maneuver.
“In the end, Brussels knows it needs Turkey, but it cannot place this need within a long-term and bold political framework,” he said.
The membership perspective and negotiation framework have been replaced by bilateral, thematic, crisis-focused and ad hoc contacts, making relations fragile and open to tensions, Tan added.
Retired Turkish ambassador Selim Kuneralp offered a more pessimistic assessment, saying the European Parliament’s Security and Defense Committee had overwhelmingly approved a decision that severely limits EU defense cooperation with Turkey.
Even if the European Commission wanted deeper cooperation, it could not ignore the European Parliament under existing treaties, Kuneralp argued. Turkey could play a role in this area only through cooperation with Italian and Spanish companies, and even France appears reluctant about a joint missile program, he added.
“For years, Turkey has completely drifted away from the EU’s foreign policy objectives, even heading in the opposite direction,” Kuneralp said.
The EU has emphasized this in documents for years, but Ankara did not act to restore balance, he noted. Rebuilding trust would be difficult and could take decades.
Kuneralp also pointed to statements from Turkey’s ruling party and its far-right ally, suggesting the country does not need Europe and should turn toward Russia and China.
“So why are we upset about von der Leyen’s words?” he asked.
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli, Erdoğan’s key ally, reacted angrily to von der Leyen’s remarks during his party’s parliamentary group meeting on Tuesday.
“Europe is experiencing political blindness. Europe cannot do without Turkey,” Bahçeli said.
Von der Leyen’s words reflected double standards and arrogance, he charged.
“The EU has been holding Turkey back for years. The issue is Brussels’ hypocritical politics,” Bahçeli said. “Everyone who wants to establish relations with Turkey must take this state’s honor into account.”
The debate points to a growing contradiction in EU-Turkey relations. Europe sees Turkey as important for security, defense, migration, supply chains and regional diplomacy. Turkey wants recognition as a key European security actor. But the EU remains unwilling to bring Ankara into its institutional core while Turkey’s democratic decline, foreign policy divergence and disputes with Greece and Cyprus remain unresolved.
The result is a relationship that continues because both sides need it, but one that increasingly depends on bilateral channels and crisis management rather than a shared political project.