The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2026 growth forecast for Turkey to 3.4 percent from 4.2 percent, saying the economy lost momentum more than expected last year and that higher oil and gas prices are weighing on activity.
In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, the IMF also lowered its 2027 growth forecast for Turkey to 3.5 percent from 4.1 percent. The fund said weaker than expected growth in 2025 and higher energy prices had worsened the outlook for the import-dependent Turkish economy.
The April 2026 World Economic Outlook says the global economy has been hit by war in the Middle East, rising commodity prices, firmer inflation expectations and tighter financial conditions, with commodity-importing emerging economies facing the heaviest strain.
Turkey depends heavily on imported oil and natural gas, making it vulnerable when energy prices rise. The IMF expects average inflation in Turkey to be 28.6 percent in 2026 before easing to 21.4 percent in 2027. It sees the current account deficit at 2.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027.
The revision marks a weaker outlook than the IMF laid out earlier this year, when it said Turkey’s disinflation program had made progress and forecast growth of 4.2 percent for 2026. In that February assessment, the fund also said end-2026 inflation was expected at about 23 percent.