Turkey’s tourism sector is beginning to feel the impact of the Iran war, with cancellations rising in eastern regions and higher aviation costs expected to push up ticket prices ahead of the summer season, according to Turkish media reports.
Tourist flows from Iran and neighboring countries have largely stopped since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, according to industry representatives.
Onur Tunçdemir, sales and marketing manager at Ayanis Tour, told Deutsche Welle (DW) that the company has been “dealing only with cancellations and refunds” in recent weeks.
Iran, which sends an average of 3.3 million visitors to Turkey annually, has been one of the country’s key tourism markets, making the disruption particularly significant for eastern and southeastern provinces.
While major destinations such as İstanbul and the popular holiday resorts of Antalya and Bodrum have not yet seen significant cancellations, industry representatives say new bookings are slowing.
Kaan Kavaloğlu, head of the Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers and Operators Association (AKTOB), told DW that bookings in those areas remain largely stable but that new reservations are slowing.
Fuel and aviation costs are also rising, adding pressure to the sector ahead of the peak summer season.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman and a critical route for global oil shipments, has largely come to a standstill, causing a major disruption in supply.
Oil prices have risen by more than 40 percent since the start of the war, pushing up the cost of gas and jet fuel. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), jet fuel prices have increased by about 106 percent compared to a month earlier.
The German Travel Association (DRV) said increasing jet fuel prices, airspace closures and longer flight routes are driving up airline costs, which are likely to be reflected in ticket prices.
Airlines have already begun responding to the surge, with some announcing fare increases or introducing fuel surcharges on tickets.
Willie Walsh, director general of the IATA, told CNN International that jet fuel prices have nearly doubled in a short period of time and that airlines cannot absorb the increase.
He said fuel could account for more than 50 percent of airline costs, making higher fares inevitable.
Industry groups also warn that the conflict could shift demand away from Turkey. The DRV said some travelers are already turning to western Mediterranean destinations such as Spain, raising concerns about increased competition.
The impact is also being felt globally. Oxford Economics estimates that tourism in the Middle East could decline by between 11 percent and 27 percent in 2026, with disruptions to transit hubs, reduced outbound demand and rising costs affecting travel beyond the region.
Security concerns have added to the uncertainty. Since the beginning of the conflict, Turkey’s Defense Ministry has reported interceptions of three Iranian missiles in Turkish airspace by NATO systems, pointing to the risk of the conflict spilling into neighboring country.
The United States has also temporarily closed its consulate in Adana and advised its citizens to leave southeastern Turkey.
The tensions come despite strong recent performance in the sector. Turkey’s tourism sector posted record results in 2025, with revenue reaching $65.2 billion and visitor numbers rising to 63.9 million, according to official data. The government has set a target of $68 billion in tourism revenue for 2026.
Despite the risks, sector representatives say the industry remains resilient. Mehmet İşler, head of the Aegean Touristic Enterprises and Accommodation Association (ETİK), said the next four to six weeks will be critical in determining the scale of the impact.