A new survey conducted by the İstanbul Planning Agency has found that earthquakes are the biggest concern for residents of İstanbul, while financial hardship remains the main obstacle preventing people from leaving unsafe buildings, the BirGün daily reported Thursday.
The “Disaster Awareness Survey,” conducted on 761 respondents across the city, found that 94.1 percent cited earthquakes as the disaster they fear most, well ahead of fires and floods.
Home to more than 15.7 million people, İstanbul sits near major fault lines and is widely considered to be at high risk of a destructive earthquake.
According to the survey, 18 percent of respondents said they believe their building would collapse in a major earthquake, while 14.3 percent said it would suffer severe damage. Although 68.1 percent said they would move if their building were officially declared unsafe, economic constraints sharply limit that option, the findings showed.
Among respondents who said they would have no choice but to remain in an officially unsafe building, 70.6 percent cited financial difficulties as the main reason. That figure rose to 78.6 percent among lower-income respondents, highlighting how income inequality directly increases disaster vulnerability.
The survey pointed to a gap between risk awareness and preparedness. While earthquakes were overwhelmingly identified as the most serious threat, more than half of respondents said they had not secured household furniture or fixtures. Only 26.4 percent reported fully anchoring items at home, while 50.3 percent said they had taken no such measures.
Turkey is crossed by active faults and has experienced repeated seismic disasters, most recently the February 2023 earthquakes in the country’s southeast, which killed more than 53,000 people and exposed serious weaknesses in building safety and emergency response.
The survey also found that 85.7 percent believe İstanbul faces the risk of a destructive earthquake in the near future. Just over half, 57.7 percent, said they felt confident about how to act during an earthquake, while 37.1 percent agreed with the view that precautions would not change fate.
Awareness of basic safety measures was uneven. Nearly two-thirds said they were familiar with the “triangle of life” concept, but only 37.3 percent reported having an emergency kit accessible at home. Slightly more than half said they knew the official post-disaster assembly point in their neighborhood.
The findings come as scientists continue to warn about seismic risks around İstanbul. A study published last month by German researchers said a key segment of the Main Marmara Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara remains locked and is accumulating strain, meaning recent moderate earthquakes have not reduced the long-term risk. Researchers stressed that their findings do not predict timing but indicate growing stress on fault sections near the city.
The GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences said the Sea of Marmara segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone has not produced a magnitude 7 or stronger earthquake since 1766. Written records dating back more than 2,000 years suggest an average recurrence interval of about 250 years for large earthquakes in the region.
Separate probability studies have estimated a 35 percent chance of a magnitude 7.3 or stronger earthquake near İstanbul over a 30-year period, rising to 47 percent in models that account for time dependence and stress transfer from the 1999 İzmit earthquake.
The 1999 İzmit earthquake, a magnitude 7.4 event east of İstanbul, killed 17,127 people, according to official figures.
Criticism has long focused on Turkey’s failure to enforce earthquake-resistant construction standards despite decades of warnings. After the 2023 earthquakes, the government faced public backlash over what many described as a slow and poorly coordinated response as well as longstanding neglect of building safety in a country frequently hit by deadly disasters.
The survey suggests that while awareness of earthquake risk in İstanbul is widespread, economic insecurity remains the decisive factor shaping how residents respond, leaving many aware of the danger but unable to move to safer housing.
İPA is a research and policy unit established by the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality in 2020, after the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) took control of the city administration in 2019.
The agency conducts surveys, produces data and prepares reports on urban planning, housing, transportation, social policy, disaster preparedness and cost-of-living issues in İstanbul.