Turkey’s official annual inflation rate climbed in September for the first time in more than a year, official figures showed Friday, undercutting government pledges that price growth was steadily easing.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the state body responsible for consumer price data, said annual inflation reached 33.29 percent last month, up from 32.95 percent in August. Consumer prices rose 3.23 percent on a monthly basis, with food, housing and education costs driving the increase.
Independent researchers, however, said the real figure is far higher. The Inflation Research Group (ENAG), a team of Turkish academics that publishes its own calculations, reported a 3.79 percent monthly rise and an annual inflation rate of 63.23 percent. ENAG’s estimates, which are widely cited by critics of the government, have consistently shown inflation at nearly double the official level.
The September increase marked the first interruption in Turkey’s 16-month “disinflation” trend. Since May 2024 official data had shown steady declines in annual inflation, but the September figures suggest that trend has stalled.
Economists warned the data could force Turkey’s central bank to rethink its recent course of monetary easing. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey lowered its benchmark interest rate in September by 250 basis points to 40.5 percent, the second consecutive cut.
“I am afraid the data suggest the CBRT [Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey] was wrong to cut hard and early and they have lost some of their hard rebuilt credibility now,” said Tim Ash of BlueBay Asset Management in a note quoted by Agence France-Presse.
Other analysts said the bank might still push ahead with gradual cuts despite the setback. “For now, though, we think that the further easing of underlying price pressures will give officials enough confidence that they can press ahead with additional 250bp [basis point] rate cuts at its forthcoming meetings,” Jason Tuvey of the London-based Capital Economics wrote in a client note quoted by Agence France-Presse.
Domestic commentators were also skeptical about the government’s targets. Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek has promised to bring inflation below 30 percent by the end of the year, but analysts increasingly see that as unrealistic. “The period of sticky inflation has begun,” BBC’s Turkish service quoted economist Güldem Atabay as saying, noting that prices for fresh fruit, education and rent saw some of the steepest increases in September.
With reporting by Agence France-Presse