Bünyamin Tekin
An opposition lawmaker in Turkey has vowed to hold President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accountable before the country’s top court over a $1.47 billion international arbitration penalty stemming from oil trade between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq.
Deniz Yavuzyılmaz, deputy chair of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), said in a social media post that he had obtained documents from an international arbitration case showing that Turkey was found liable for violating a bilateral pipeline agreement by transporting Kurdish oil to its Ceyhan port without approval from Iraq’s central government. He said the fine imposed by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) tribunal is final and growing with interest, and that Erdoğan should be tried at Turkey’s Constitutional Court, which acts as a supreme criminal tribunal for senior officials, including the president.
Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın Yüce Divan'da yargılanmasına neden olacak belgeleri paylaşıyorum!
Uluslararası Tahkim Mahkemesi'nin gizlenen dosyasına ulaştık⬇️
2014-2023 yılları arasında;
AK Parti, Irak Merkezi Hükümeti’nin onayı olmadan, Türkiye-Irak ham petrol boru hattından… pic.twitter.com/rVkLwvSPYA
— Deniz Yavuzyılmaz (@yavuzyilmazd) July 24, 2025
The arbitration ruling became publicly accessible after Iraq initiated enforcement proceedings in a US court. The award concerns Turkey’s authorization of oil exports from the Kurdish region between 2014 and 2018, despite explicit objections from Baghdad. Yavuzyılmaz argued that Erdoğan’s decision to bypass Iraq’s central government in favor of a separate deal with the KRG directly led to the penalty.
The $1.47 billion award, issued in February 2023, is the net amount after offsetting damages owed by Iraq. According to expert analysis, Turkey’s actual financial obligation stood at just over $600 million by September 2023, factoring in post-award interest that partly worked in Turkey’s favor.
Turkey’s Presidential Communications Directorate denied that the ruling was final, claiming that the case is still under review in France, where Turkey has filed an annulment request. Its affiliated Disinformation Combat Center (DMM) described Yavuzyılmaz’s statements as misleading and irresponsible.
However, legal experts dispute this claim. International arbitration lawyer Hakan Kaplankaya explained that while Turkey’s annulment petition is pending in France, the award is already enforceable under international law. He said overturning such rulings is rare and would require specific procedural flaws, such as a lack of impartiality.
Kaplankaya clarified that the ruling is not subject to a standard appeal and said that describing it as “not finalized” misleads the public, since enforcement can proceed in other jurisdictions unless the French court annuls the decision, which is unlikely.
The tribunal found Turkey in violation of multiple clauses in the 1976 and 2010 pipeline agreements by allowing unauthorized exports and blocking access to Iraqi officials. Iraq filed a case in US federal court in April 2023 to enforce the ruling.
Former Turkish diplomat Mustafa Enes Esen, now a researcher at the Brussels-based InstituDE think tank, said Turkey’s decision to purchase and resell Kurdish oil without Baghdad’s approval was shaped by the geopolitical conditions of the time. He described Ankara’s approach as “break it to fix it” — acting unilaterally first and then seeking retroactive settlement through diplomacy.
Esen said Turkey acquired oil at discounted prices and that due to the legal questions over the arrangement, at some point Israel was the primary external buyer. At the height of the trade, the pipeline reportedly supplied up to 70 percent of Israel’s daily oil needs.
Following the ICC ruling in 2023, Turkey abruptly halted oil flows through the pipeline.
Esen noted that Turkey later sought to pressure Iraq into withdrawing a second arbitration case by cutting off oil flow that Baghdad relied on and proposing negotiations. He said the issue is further complicated by Iraq’s OPEC production quotas and the power struggle between Baghdad and Erbil over oil control and revenue sharing.
He added that while Turkey has officially terminated the agreement, talks for a new deal are underway. Using the pipeline to transport domestically produced oil, such as from the Gabar fields, still requires Iraqi approval due to the line’s joint ownership.
On longstanding allegations that oil from Islamic State–controlled areas was mixed with Kurdish crude and resold through the same route, Esen said he had no direct knowledge but noted that oil smuggling remains widespread in the region. He cited reports of illegal flows of up to 200,000 barrels per day in northern Iraq involving various actors.
The arbitration ruling is enforceable under the New York Convention, and US courts are likely to confirm the award. The pending annulment decision in Paris remains the only formal legal barrier that could prevent Turkey from being compelled to pay the full penalty.