Ömer Murat*
In the old Turkey, the secular army used to issue memorandums to governments to keep political parties in line. The primary message conveyed through these memorandums was unequivocal: “Even if you’re elected, you’re not permitted to transgress certain boundaries established by the regime.”
Now, in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey, under the presidential system of governance, a similar function is now performed by the courts, which have come under the strong influence of the executive branch. There are growing concerns about the separation of powers and the rule of law, as the executive branch exerts its influence over the courts. It has been observed that political party leaders who stand in the way of the electoral goals of the ruling party, such as Selahattin Demirtaş, the former co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and Ümit Özdağ, leader of the far-right opposition Victory Party, have been detained on somewhat shaky grounds. Or, as in the case of İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s opponents who are likely to defeat him in the presidential elections are being investigated or tried on trumped-up charges and threatened with arrest and political bans.
Prior to the May 14 elections in 2023, most polls indicated that İmamoğlu had a strong chance of winning against Erdoğan if he had run for president. But on December 14, 2022, just five months before the election, an İstanbul court barred him from running. His crime? Calling the officials who canceled the election, which he had won on March 31, 2019, “idiots.” The election was subsequently held on June 23, 2019, and İmamoğlu emerged victorious with a significantly higher percentage of the vote. This court decision effectively eliminated Erdoğan’s main electoral rival at the time.
But this setback did not prevent İmamoğlu from also winning the local elections on March 31 of last year, despite Erdoğan’s mobilization of all state resources for his ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) candidate. At present, İmamoğlu is considered one of the possible front-runners in the presidential election slated for 2028.
And once again, Erdoğan does not seem to have the courage to face İmamoğlu in an election. It appears that he has already initiated steps to prevent this from happening. The mayors of two Republican People’s Party (CHP) districts in İstanbul, Esenyurt and Beşiktaş, were arrested on grounds that have been widely criticized as politically motivated. In his subsequent speech Erdoğan said, “The real bombshell is still in the bag,” a phrase widely interpreted as a threat of further legal action against opposition figures, particularly İmamoğlu.
In response, İmamoğlu didn’t hesitate to claim that Akın Gürlek, the İstanbul chief public prosecutor who oversaw investigations into the municipalities, was acting on behalf of Erdoğan and that he himself was the real target. In response, the İstanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office launched an immediate investigation into İmamoğlu and completed the indictment in just five days. It is noteworthy that the same prosecutor has not yet indicted the mayor of Esenyurt, who has been in prison for three months. İmamoğlu has been charged with “publicly insulting a civil servant in the course of his duties” and “targeting people involved in the fight against terrorism.” If convicted, he could face up to seven years, four months in prison and a ban from politics, including running against Erdoğan in the presidential election.
Before the 2023 elections, then-CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu strategically used the court’s decision against İmamoğlu to advance his own candidacy. At the time, polls showed that Kılıçdaroğlu’s chances against Erdoğan were slim, so he was clearly the AKP leader’s preferred candidate.
Following his defeat to Erdoğan in a runoff election, Kılıçdaroğlu lost his seat and Özgür Özel was elected instead. Since the day of his election, Özel has repeatedly stated that he will not be a presidential candidate. The CHP’s base is angry that Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost numerous elections to Erdoğan, was chosen as a candidate in a crucial election when there were stronger contenders such as İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş. In an effort to appease the party’s base, Özel has repeatedly made statements indicating that he will not make the same mistake and run for the presidency.
Therefore, unlike before May 14, Erdoğan is facing significant challenges in determining the candidate who will face him while covering (most of) his tracks. He has to find a way to present the image that İmamoğlu and Yavaş can’t run mainly because of the internal competition in the CHP, not because of his interference through controversial court decisions, and that the CHP leadership is the one holding them back, not him.
Under Erdoğan’s rule, Turkey is seen more as an autocracy than a democracy in the world, and the proof of this is that the country has hit rock bottom in the rule of law and freedom of expression indexes. In this context, it becomes imperative for Erdoğan to project an image of himself as a popular leader who is supported by the majority, despite the ongoing crackdown on his opponents. He doesn’t want the world to see that in reality he doesn’t allow any candidate with a chance of winning to run against him, but he can’t achieve this if the CHP leader doesn’t play ball as he expects.
It seems that Özel has neither the authority nor the inclination to prevent İmamoğlu and Yavaş from running. This is frustrating for Erdoğan, and his statement on February 1 at a party meeting in western Turkey reflects this disappointment. There, Erdoğan claimed that Özel was an elected chairman “as a result of a controversial party congress,” but he provided no evidence to support this claim. This statement is particularly noteworthy because the CHP congress that elected Özel took place in Ankara on November 4-5, 2023 and was conducted through a democratic process, with the majority of delegates and the Supreme Election Board formally approving his election.
Erdoğan’s statement suggests a veiled threat to Özel, indicating that if the CHP leader wants to keep his position, he will have to align himself with Erdoğan’s interests. As a matter of fact, the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office announced on Monday the launch of an investigation into claims of alleged “vote buying” at the CHP party congress in 2023. No one can say for sure that a court under the Erdoğan regime won’t declare the CHP party congress illegal. In today’s Turkey, such a move wouldn’t come as a surprise. Kılıçdaroğlu, 76, has not given up on politics and has not ruled out running again if the CHP congress reconvenes to elect a new leader after a court ruling.
This is not an unprecedented situation. A notable example is the court’s intervention in 2016, which led to the cancellation of the Nationalist Movement Party’s (MHP) extraordinary congress to elect its leader. This move effectively prevented Erdoğan’s ally, Devlet Bahçeli, from losing to Meral Akşener, a development that could have significantly altered the political landscape. The court’s intervention prevented the congress from convening, forcing Akşener and her supporters to form an alternative party, the İYİ (Good) Party.
It seems that Erdoğan wants to ensure the emergence of a CHP leader who can prevent the rise of İmamoğlu and Yavaş as presidential candidates. If he achieves this goal and is able to force the main opposition party to nominate an uncharismatic, low-key candidate similar to Kılıçdaroğlu, it is likely that he will easily win the subsequent election as if he were making an honest buck.
It is highly improbable that Erdoğan would allow an election where the opposition could have strong, charismatic candidates like İmamoğlu or Yavaş. He is currently laying the groundwork for such an outcome. After all, it’s rare for an autocrat to allow elections he can’t win and relinquish power in this way.
*Ömer Murat is a political analyst and a former Turkish diplomat who currently lives in Germany.