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Central bank: Turkish lira will be valued at 5.64 to the US dollar at yearend

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Turkey’s central bank released an expectation poll for the month of November that it conducted on 70 finance experts, executives and professionals in which the value of lira against the US dollar is forecast to be 5.64 at the end of the year, a decrease from the 5.99 of a previous poll, the NTV news website reported on Thursday.

The expectation for the valuation of the lira to the dollar for the same month of next year also fell from 6.53 to 6.37.

The forecast for the consumer price index (CPI) for November 2018 declined from 1.31 percent to 0.88, whereas CPI expectations for December 2018 and January 2019 were 0.77 and 1.71 percent, respectively.

As regards the annualized CPI at yearend, the expectation went from 24.22 percent to 24.45 percent compared to the previous poll. The CPI predicted for the next 12 and 24-month periods rose from 17.03 percent to 17.38 percent and from 12.70 percent to 12.97 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, the poll projected that the yearend current account deficit would stand at $36.7 billion, which represents a decline from the $40.7 billion of the previous poll. The current account deficit forecast for 2019 also fell from $31.6 billion to $29.8 billion.

GDP growth predicted for 2018 dropped from 3.2 percent to 3.1 percent, while the projected GDP growth in 2019 also declined from 1.9 percent to 1.6 percent.

The Turkish lira underwent a currency crisis in the first half of this year, losing nearly 50 percent in value against the US dollar. Even though the lira has recouped some of its losses since September, the inflation numbers and forecasts have maintained their upward trend.

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