Turkey would be among the economies hit hardest by a severe oil price shock in Central and Eastern Europe, along with Hungary and Slovakia, according to a new scenario analysis from S&P Global Ratings.
The ratings agency said countries that are more energy-intensive and more dependent on imported energy would face the heaviest strain if oil prices remain high for a long period of time, with the effect depending on available buffers and governments’ policy responses.
S&P said that under its baseline scenario, with Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in 2026 and falling to $65 in 2027, the negative effect on sovereign credit quality across the region would remain manageable.
Under a stress scenario, however, S&P assumes Brent would average $130 per barrel in 2026 and $98 in 2027. It said that outcome would weaken growth, increase current account deficits and put more pressure on public finances across the region.
For Turkey, S&P said the balance of payments position would be affected significantly in a severe oil shock scenario. It said elevated inflation, weak confidence in the Turkish lira and the central bank’s modest net foreign exchange reserves remain constraints on the country’s relatively low sovereign rating.
“Energy prices that are higher for longer could create the perfect storm for the Turkish economy,” S&P said, noting that Turkey imports more than 70 percent of its primary energy supply.
In updated baseline forecasts included in the report, S&P raised its 2026 average inflation projection for Turkey to 29.3 percent from 23.6 percent in its December 2025 baseline. It also increased its forecast for Turkey’s current account deficit to 3.1 percent of GDP from 1.6 percent, while keeping its general government deficit forecast at 3.6 percent of GDP.
Under the stress scenario, S&P sees Turkey’s inflation rising to 35 percent in 2026, with the current account deficit growing to 4.4 percent of GDP and economic growth slowing to 2.5 percent.
The report comes as the Middle East conflict triggered by US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed global energy prices higher.
Turkey remains exposed to shifts in global energy markets because it relies heavily on imported oil and natural gas, a longstanding vulnerability that can feed inflation, pressure the currency and worsen the country’s external financing needs when prices rise.
S&P said countries with stronger external or public balance sheets, including the Czech Republic and Poland, are better placed to absorb the shock, while Romania’s domestic energy production and Poland’s coal-heavy energy mix could limit the macroeconomic impact compared to more import-dependent economies. It added that if European natural gas prices were also to rise toward their 2022 peaks, downside pressure on ratings across the region would become broader and more severe.