İstanbul’s jailed mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, would have a significant lead over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a hypothetical second-round presidential election, leading him by 16 points, according to the results of a new survey.
The poll, conducted by the İstanbul-based Gündemar pollster between January 21 and 24 on 2,255 participants across 60 provinces, examined possible presidential runoff scenarios and voter tendencies. According to the findings, all major opposition figures tested in second-round scenarios received more support than Erdoğan.
In a direct runoff simulation between İmamoğlu of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Erdoğan, before undecided and protest votes — ballots cast to signal dissatisfaction rather than support for a specific candidate — were redistributed, İmamoğlu received 48.03 percent while Erdoğan stood at 34.68 percent.
When undecided voters were distributed proportionally, İmamoğlu’s support rose to 58.07 percent compared to Erdoğan’s 41.93 percent, widening the gap to 16.14 percentage points.
İmamoğlu, seen as the strongest political rival of Erdoğan, was arrested in March 2025 on corruption charges, which many critics view as politically motivated. His detention ignited widespread protests, the largest in Turkey since 2013, escalating political tensions. He was named his party’s presidential candidate on the day he was put in pretrial detention.
The survey also included other opposition figures. Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş, another CHP member, and CHP leader Özgür Özel both led Erdoğan in possible second-round races, suggesting a broader edge for the opposition.
The poll further examined alternative candidates within pro-government circles.
Selçuk Bayraktar, Erdoğan’s son-in-law and chairman of Turkish defense contractor Baykar, who is occasionally mentioned in pro-government circles as a possible future contender, performed better than Erdoğan in some hypothetical matchups but did not surpass opposition figures, including İmamoğlu.
Bayraktar has never held elected office. His public profile is closely tied to Turkey’s defense industry and the international promotion of domestically produced drones, which have become a central pillar of the government’s narrative on technological advancement and national security.
The findings come at a time of heightened debate over potential succession plans for Erdoğan.
Bilal Erdoğan, the president’s son, has also attracted increased public attention in recent months, fueling speculation about a possible future political role.
Although he holds no elected office and is not a member of the Cabinet, his public appearances and statements have received growing media coverage, with some commentators portraying him as a potential figure in a post-Erdoğan era.
Turkey’s next presidential election is slated for 2028, but the opposition has said it wants it to be held earlier since the arrest of İmamoğlu last year.
There are claims that Erdoğan wants to sideline İmamoğlu if he tries to seek another term as president.