Erdoğan bases his legitimacy on elections. That’s why he didn’t congratulate Maduro this time

Bünyamin Tekin

Back in 2019 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan urged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to “stand tall” against what they both saw as foreign interference in Venezuelan affairs and extended his full support.

However, when Maduro recently announced the results of last month’s election as a win for himself with a majority of the vote — an announcement contested by the opposition accusing him of fraud as well as by many other governments — Erdoğan refrained from conveying the congratulations Maduro desperately needed to bolster his legitimacy through the public endorsement of a NATO member-country’s head of state.

Speaking to Turkish Minute, Dr. İmdat Öner, a former Turkish diplomat and expert on Venezuelan politics, shed light on Erdoğan’s current approach towards Venezuela. Öner explained that Erdoğan’s previous unreserved support for Maduro has evolved into a more cautious stance following the contested 2024 Venezuelan presidential election.

The election, held on July 28, was marked by significant allegations of fraud and irregularities. Maduro’s announcement of victory was quickly contested by opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia and numerous international observers, who cited widespread electoral fraud and suppression of opposition figures. The National Electoral Council (CNE), controlled by Maduro’s government, announced results that were widely regarded as falsified.

Unlike the previous elections, which were largely boycotted by the opposition due to unfair conditions, Erdoğan refrained from congratulating Maduro on his claimed victory this time. Instead, he made a carefully worded statement expressing hope for a peaceful resolution and continued support for dialogue in Venezuela. This nuanced approach contrasts sharply with his previous outright endorsement of Maduro.

Öner attributed Erdoğan’s cautious approach to several factors.

“Erdoğan places significant importance on the legitimacy of election results, both domestically and internationally,” Öner said, noting that this does not mean he is a fan of free and fair elections.

Erdoğan himself has been accused of autocracy and creating an uneven playing field that tips the scales for his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

What Erdoğan prizes are the election results and the vote count passing as correct and not rigged, at least to international observers, according to Öner.

Erdoğan can steal votes here and there to win narrow advantages, but if he loses by a significant margin, like his party did in the re-run race for the İstanbul mayoralty in 2019, he concedes.

“Because this would harm Erdoğan’s image both domestically and globally. This is not about a democratic principle for Erdoğan. It’s more about his global image. Even in the first round of the presidential election in Turkey, for instance, where the results were very close, he didn’t push it. He had to accept it,” Öner notes.

“Erdoğan is very aware of how closely his own legitimacy is tied to the perception of free elections,” said Öner. “Aligning himself with a leader who clearly rigged elections would damage his credibility.”

Erdoğan likely received detailed reports from the Turkish Embassy in Caracas and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicating that the elections were indeed fraudulent, according to Öner.

He said Erdoğan has no doubt that Maduro attempted to significantly rig the election results.

“The intelligence Erdoğan received must have been very clear about the extent of the fraud,” Öner said.

Erdoğan’s phone call with Maduro, while stopping short of congratulations, included discussions on bilateral relations, regional and global issues and support for dialogue in Venezuela.

Öner suggested that Erdoğan is positioning Turkey as a potential mediator in the Venezuelan crisis, similar to its role in other international conflicts.

“Turkey has tried to play such a role between the opposition and Maduro in Venezuela before. This time, Erdoğan probably wants to contribute to the regional effort, which is why he called for dialogue, hinting that they want a seat at the table,” Öner said.

Despite Erdoğan’s cautious stance, Turkey continues to maintain strong economic ties with Venezuela. Bilateral trade has grown significantly, and the two countries have developed close personal ties at the leadership level. Maduro attended Erdoğan’s inauguration in June 2023, and Erdoğan has visited Venezuela multiple times during his presidency.

The Venezuelan presidential election was a watershed moment in the country’s ongoing political crisis. Maduro, seeking a third term, faced off against Urrutia, the candidate of the main opposition alliance, the Unitary Platform. The election was characterized by widespread reports of fraud and voter suppression, with the opposition claiming that González had won by a large margin.

The opposition released copies of official tally sheets collected by poll watchers, showing a landslide victory for González. However, the CNE announced results favoring Maduro, which were widely regarded as falsified. International monitors, including those from the United States and Argentina, declared the election neither free nor fair, citing the Maduro administration’s control over state powers and repression of the opposition.

The international community’s reaction was swift and largely unified in condemning the election. Most Western countries and international organizations refused to recognize Maduro’s victory, while Russia, China and Iran continued to support him.

Within Venezuela, the announcement of Maduro’s victory led to widespread protests. The Maduro administration responded with a crackdown, detaining opposition figures and criminalizing protests. Human rights organizations condemned these actions, highlighting the regime’s authoritarian nature.

It is not new for Maduro to face accusations of attempting to steal a presidential election –- in 2018, the US called his re-election claim an “insult to democracy” and announced in 2019 that it recognized opposition leader Eduardo Guaido as the legitimate president.

“The 2019 crisis was a result of the 2018 presidential election, where the opposition encountered many obstacles, opted out of participating and boycotted the election. Some lesser-known opposition candidates did participate, but voter turnout was very low, around 40 percent, one of the lowest in Venezuela’s history. Despite this, it was still a presidential election with public participation and results announced that night,” Öner said.

“At that time, Erdoğan deemed the mere occurrence of the election as sufficient, regardless of the opposition’s boycott or the unfair pre-election conditions,” he added.

“The critical issue for Erdoğan now is that Maduro attempted to steal the election results, not by a small margin, but by blatantly trying to steal 3 to 4 million votes. This led Erdoğan to recognize the gravity of the situation. In 2019 Erdoğan had aggressively supported Maduro and recognized his election as legitimate. Now, even leftist governments in Latin America, such as those in Colombia, Brazil and Mexico, have not recognized Maduro. Erdoğan sees this and does not want to be part of it,” Öner said.

For Öner, Maduro will either have to accept the election result and resign, or become more radical and perhaps impose martial law to maintain his power, starting on January 10, when the new term begins. But such a regime would lack public support and would be more reliant on military and institutional support.

“This would essentially be a coup regime. How sustainable it is remains to be seen, and Erdoğan is probably skeptical. He is probably considering how long a regime can last without public support. I share the same concerns and believe that Maduro will not be able to hold on to power for another six years under these circumstances,” Öner said.

Öner also suggested that Erdoğan might be contemplating offering Maduro a safe haven if he steps down, considering the numerous cases against Maduro for crimes against humanity, corruption, money laundering and drug trafficking in the US, Europe and Venezuela. The Venezuelan opposition has even claimed that Maduro has millions of dollars and owns luxury homes in Turkey.

“Erdoğan could be considering whether Turkey might provide a refuge for Maduro and members of his regime,” Öner said. “It’s something that comes to my mind as well. I’ll be watching to see if Turkey engages with regional players like Brazil and Colombia or brings this up in discussions with the US.”