Turkey’s education system faces a sharp decline in student numbers and a growing mismatch with the labor market, a report by the Turkish Education Association’s think tank TEDMEM said, warning of mounting structural pressures.
Falling birth rates are expected to reduce the number of children starting primary school by 21 percent by 2030, the report said, citing a sustained decline in births over the past decade.
The shift is expected to affect school capacity, teacher recruitment and university quotas, raising concerns that the system is not prepared for a shrinking student population.
At the same time the report found a widening gap between education and employment. It said Turkey is the only European country where unemployment among university graduates, at 9.1 percent, exceeds the national average of 8.5 percent.
The report also noted differences in methodology between official datasets on how long it takes graduates to find a job, complicating efforts to assess the transition from education to employment.
TEDMEM said higher education continues to produce large numbers of graduates without a corresponding increase in jobs, creating a growing mismatch between diplomas and labor market demand.
Problems are also visible in the earlier stages of education. Repetition rates in high schools have risen sharply, while transitions from formal education to open high schools increased by 47.7 percent, with ninth-grade students accounting for 58.4 percent of those transfers.
University entrance data also show a system under strain. Nearly seven out of 10 students placed in higher education programs are repeat exam-takers, while only 16.46 percent of final-year students secure places in four-year degree programs.
The number of applicants for the university entrance exam has also declined sharply, falling by nearly 1 million between 2023 and 2025, a 27.4 percent drop.
The report also documented pressures in the education workforce. Contract teacher appointments fell to 15,000 in 2025, well below the 20-year average of 38,670.
TEDMEM said these trends reflect broader structural problems, including weak alignment between education outputs and labor market needs, economic uncertainty and limited career guidance.
It called for a comprehensive overhaul of education policy, including better coordination between institutions, stronger data systems and a shift toward lifelong learning and micro-credential models.