Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş remains the most popular political figure in Turkey, while President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has overtaken jailed presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu, widely seen as his strongest challenger, in March approval ratings, according to a recent opinion poll.
In an article in the Nefes daily, columnist Aytunç Erkin shared findings from a MetroPoll survey conducted between March 11 and 16, which showed that all major political figures recorded gains in approval, with Yavaş maintaining the top position at 54 percent, up 6 points from the previous month.
Erdoğan ranked second with 46 percent, marking an 8-point increase that allowed him to surpass İmamoğlu in overall approval. The rise signals a notable shift after months in which opposition figures had dominated similar rankings, Erkin said.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan followed closely with 45 percent, while İmamoğlu’s approval stood at 44 percent, up 5 points compared to last month. Despite his ongoing legal battles, İmamoğlu’s support remained relatively stable at a high level.
İmamoğlu, 54, was arrested in March 2025 on the same day the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) formally named him as its presidential candidate, in a move critics said was aimed at removing him from politics before the next election.
Among other political figures, CHP leader Özgür Özel saw his approval increase by 5 points to 38 percent, while Erdoğan’s far-right ally Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), recorded a 9-point rise to 35 percent. İYİ (Good) Party leader Müsavat Dervişoğlu’s approval was measured at 25 percent.
According to Erkin, the rise in Yavaş’s popularity reflects the public appeal of a “low-tension, technocratic and trustworthy leadership profile” within the opposition.
He also noted that Fidan’s approval was supported by both the prominence of foreign policy issues and his image as a technocratic and non-confrontational statesman.
Erkin further stated that in the same survey, support for the main opposition CHP stood at 33 percent after undecided voters were distributed, slightly ahead of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at 32 percent.
The survey also pointed to differing public perceptions of leadership in times of crisis.
In a hypothetical scenario in which Turkey faces a regional war, 45 percent of respondents said they would prefer Erdoğan to manage the crisis, compared to 29 percent who favored Özel, the columnist said. According to Erkin the findings suggest that despite criticism of the government’s economic performance, it retains a relative advantage in security and crisis management.
Similarly, 51 percent of respondents described Erdoğan’s leadership in foreign policy as an opportunity for Turkey, while 40 percent viewed it as a risk. Erkin noted that Erdoğan’s foreign policy performance is perceived more positively than his economic management or overall approval ratings.
He also pointed out that roughly one-third of voters from the İYİ Party and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) described Erdoğan’s foreign policy leadership as an opportunity.
The results indicate that while opposition figures continue to perform strongly in overall approval rankings, Erdoğan maintains a comparatively stronger perception in areas related to foreign policy and national security.
The survey’s findings come against the backdrop of a wide-ranging government crackdown targeting the CHP since October 2024, when the party won İstanbul, Ankara and other major cities and secured the largest share of the national vote for the first time in decades. Since then, prosecutors have launched a series of investigations targeting opposition mayors and municipal officials, often on corruption-related charges that critics say are politically motivated. Courts have also invalidated CHP party congress results and replaced elected party officials with court-appointed administrators in multiple cities.
The crackdown escalated sharply after the arrest of İmamoğlu, who faces charges including leading a criminal organization, embezzlement, bid-rigging, bribery and espionage in an indictment that prosecutors say documents a decade-long criminal enterprise within the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality.
İmamoğlu, who first won the İstanbul mayoralty in 2019 after defeating Erdoğan’s party in a historic upset, is widely regarded as the opposition’s strongest potential challenger to Erdoğan in the presidential election scheduled for 2028.
Opposition leaders say the legal cases are part of a broader strategy to weaken the CHP’s local power base and pressure its officials to defect to the ruling party. Over 60 opposition mayors have switched allegiance to the ruling AKP over the past two years, a trend critics attribute to political pressure and intimidation.