Turkey’s central bank raised its end of 2026 inflation forecast range to from 13-19 percent to 15-21 percent and projected inflation at between 6 and 12 percent at the end of 2027, according to its Inflation Report 2026 I released on Thursday.
The bank said it kept interim targets at 16 percent for the end of 2026 and 9 percent for the end of 2027 and set an interim target of 8 percent for the end of 2028, while reiterating a medium-term inflation target of 5 percent.
In its January policy decision, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 37 percent from 38 percent.
Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) data showed annual consumer inflation at 30.65 percent in January, up 4.84 percent from the previous month.
A central bank survey of market participants conducted January 12-14 put end of 2026 inflation expectations at 23.23 percent.
Turkey’s annual consumer inflation has stayed above 30 percent since December 2021, rising to 85.51 percent in October 2022, easing to 38.21 percent in June 2023, climbing again to 75.45 percent in May 2024 and then slowing to 30.65 percent in January 2026.
However, the official figures continue to be challenged by independent economists from the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), who estimate consumer price inflation at 53.4 percent over the past 12 months.
The country has experienced double-digit inflation since 2019, making life increasingly more expensive for millions of people, after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ordered interest rate cuts in a bid to spur growth.
But the cuts sent the lira plunging on currency markets, further fueling inflation and leading Erdoğan to reverse his unorthodox policy in 2023.