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[ANALYSIS] A new scandal: In Erdoğan’s Turkey, corruption breeds autocracy and instability

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Ömer Murat*

Reports of new corruption scandals continue to surface in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) has increasingly become a hub for his regime’s illicit activities, including money laundering. The latest allegations have put the KKTC at the heart of a new exposé involving high-level political figures and criminal networks.

At the center of the new allegations is Halil Falyalı, a casino boss known as the “illegal betting baron” who was assassinated in February 2022. According to news reports, Cemil Önal, who managed Falyalı’s financial affairs, was arrested in the Netherlands about a year and a half ago and released after 16 months in prison. His release reportedly followed cooperation with Dutch and US authorities, during which he shared detailed information about the illegal operations. Investigative journalist Cevheri Güven was the first to publicize Önal’s testimony in Turkey. The case has gained renewed attention following Önal’s extensive interview with a newspaper in the KKTC.

In the interview Önal described how Falyalı managed and distributed large sums of money from illegal international betting operations. According to Önal, the funds moved through countries including Belarus, Malta, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Cyprus and Turkey. He said he personally delivered around $15 million per month in bribes to officials in Turkey and northern Cyprus, disguised as “sponsorship” payments on Falyalı’s behalf.

Önal claims that most of the payments were made in cash, while others were funneled through jewellers and currency exchange houses to avoid detection. He alleges that Falyalı paid bribes to former interior minister Süleyman Soylu, who served from 2016 to 2023, and former vice president Fuat Oktay, who held office from 2018 to 2023.

He also names Maksut Serim, a close aide to President Erdoğan. According to Önal, Falyalı bought properties from the Serim family at inflated prices in return for political and bureaucratic protection.

Until recently Maksut Serim served as the chief advisor for financial and administrative affairs in the presidency, overseeing the presidency’s “discretionary funds,” which are not subject to parliamentary approval or oversight by any state institution. Serim has managed Erdoğan’s financial affairs since his time as mayor of İstanbul and continued in that role throughout Erdoğan’s tenure as prime minister and later as president.

Önal also pointed to a close relationship between Maksut Serim and Falyalı’s sons. Notably, Serim’s son, Yasin Ekrem Serim, was appointed ambassador to the KKTC in July 2024 despite having little diplomatic experience. He was abruptly dismissed just seven months later. Erdoğan removed both father and son from their positions at the same time, offering no public explanation.

Önal claims that Yasin Ekrem Serim was appointed ambassador to recover blackmail tapes that had come into the possession of Falyalı’s family after his death. According to Önal, Falyalı maintained an archive of 45 videos containing explicit footage of several high-ranking Justice and Development Party (AKP) figures. He allegedly kept the tapes as leverage, intending to use them for protection or blackmail if necessary.

According to Önal, the blackmail tapes included footage involving the sons of Binali Yıldırım, who served as prime minister from 2016 to 2018, and Hakan Fidan, the current foreign minister. Yasin Ekrem Serim was sent to Nicosia to recover the archive and deliver it to Ankara. He reportedly completed the task and handed the tapes over to Fidan. However, while the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) had identified 45 tapes, Serim is said to have delivered only 40 — raising suspicions that he kept the remaining five. Though the content of the missing tapes is unknown, claims suggest they involve the sons of Yıldırım and Fidan. Erdoğan was reportedly enraged by the situation and dismissed both father and son.

Given how easily such videos can be copied with today’s technology, confiscating the originals would not necessarily eliminate the threat they pose. This raises the possibility that the Serims’ downfall was not about the tapes themselves, but rather a dispute over the distribution of bribes. Based on Önal’s other claims, this explanation appears more likely.

Despite the seriousness of the allegations, the government has not issued a comprehensive statement. The claims have spread widely on social media. An official investigation into Falyalı’s murder is ongoing in Turkey. AKP lawmaker Süleyman Soylu denied the bribery allegations in a statement posted on X. He said Turkish security agencies have identified Önal as the prime suspect in Falyalı’s murder and that a Red Notice has been issued for his arrest.

This raises questions about whether Turkish authorities have communicated with their Dutch counterparts regarding Önal’s release — and, if not, why that communication has not occurred. The Dutch decision not to extradite someone Turkey identifies as a murder suspect also warrants further scrutiny. These issues remain unresolved.

In a similar vein, Erdoğan has not commented on the alleged missteps or transgressions of Yasin Ekrem Serim that led to his swift dismissal from the ambassadorial post he held for a mere seven months. This puzzling reticence inevitably leads to the conclusion that Önal’s allegations deserve serious consideration.

In a recent speech to the Turkish Parliament, Özgür Özel, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), emphasized the seriousness of the allegations. “It has been revealed that Hakan Fidan is involved. Binali Yıldırım is in this business. The children of these politicians — the former prime minister and the current foreign minister —are involved. There are 45 tapes, 40 have been recovered, and five remain unaccounted for. Large sums of money were also transferred to a bank account in England while [Serim] was deputy foreign minister and ambassador,” he said.

In the context of the presidential regime in Turkey, it has become clear that the principle of separation of powers is no longer observed. The judiciary has been significantly influenced and controlled by the presidency. As a result, the executive branch may find it expedient to engage in large-scale corruption activities. This is because they are aware that they have the power to obstruct any investigation by the judicial authorities. At the end of his speech, the CHP leader said, “All the filth has been exposed here. Now we are looking for a prosecutor who has the courage to investigate these people.”

However, as expected, no such prosecutor has emerged so far. In the aftermath of a 2016 coup attempt, Erdoğan launched a purge of more than 4,000 judges, replacing them with people loyal to him and mostly young. Turkey’s judiciary is now highly politicized.

The erosion of the rule of law has led to the spread of corruption and authoritarianism in the country. The arrest of İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on dubious charges is just the latest example. This pervasive corruption is scaring off foreign investors, whose presence and investment are crucial to the country’s economic development. It is clear that widespread corruption in Erdoğan’s Turkey is a key factor in the rise of autocracy and subsequent social instability.

*Ömer Murat is a political analyst and a former Turkish diplomat who currently lives in Germany.

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