Erdoğan says improved security situation in Syria will help ‘voluntary returns’ as rebels enter Aleppo

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Friday said enhancing security in Syria will facilitate “the voluntary return of refugees,” as rebels and some Turkey-backed militants launched a major offensive that has brought them to the city center of Aleppo, marking their most significant territorial gains in years, the pro-government Türkiye daily reported.

Speaking at an event in İstanbul on Friday, Erdoğan said his government is “encouraging voluntary returns.”

“As the security environment strengthens in Syria, the pace of returns will accelerate,” he added.

Turkish President Erdogan:

Voluntary returns to Syria will accelerate. pic.twitter.com/MDlOzRQoTy

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 29, 2024

Turkey hosts more than three million Syrians and has been accused of coercing thousands into signing declarations of “voluntary return.”

Critics argue that conditions in Syria remain unsafe for refugees, questioning the viability of voluntary returns as ongoing violence and instability persist.

Regime forces retreating from Aleppo. pic.twitter.com/AfUGsAMCAD

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 29, 2024

The current offensive, led by the former Al-Qaeda affiliate group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by some factions of the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army, has captured dozens of towns and villages in northern Syria, seizing military equipment and creating a new front in the conflict. At the time of reporting, footage circulating on social media indicated that some rebel militants were in proximity of the historic citadel of Aleppo, storming Damascus-run military installations in the city.

BIG: Syrian rebels storm Syrian Air Force Intelligence Branch, a detention and torture center in the Al-Zahraa Association neighborhood in Aleppo

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) November 29, 2024

Syrian government forces responded with heavy airstrikes, artillery shelling and ground operations, leaving dozens of civilians dead or wounded and displacing thousands, according to humanitarian agencies.

The developments come as Turkey continues efforts to balance its support for certain rebel groups with attempts to normalize relations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Analysts note that Ankara may view this offensive as a means to exert pressure on Assad’s regime and limit the potential for new refugee flows into Turkey, which already hosts the largest population of displaced Syrians in the world.

Observers have also pointed out that the involvement of Turkish-backed forces in HTS-led operations could further strain Turkey’s fragile agreements with Russia, a key backer of the Assad government. Meanwhile, intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian forces in Syria and Moscow’s reduced focus on Syria amid its war in Ukraine have created new dynamics in the region, with rebel groups seeking to exploit these vulnerabilities.

Meanwhile, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Öncü Keçeli said in a post on X that Turkey is committed to maintaining calm in Idlib and adjacent areas along the border with Syria.

Regarding the developments in Idlib and the adjacent region:

Maintaining calm in Idlib and the adjacent region, which is at the zero point of our border, is a priority for Türkiye.

Since 2017, several agreements have been reached regarding the Idlib de-escalation area. Türkiye…

— Öncü Keçeli | Dışişleri Bakanlığı Sözcüsü (@SpoxTR_MFA) November 29, 2024

Keçeli pointed out that since 2017, Turkey has adhered to multiple agreements regarding a de-escalation zone in Idlib, but expressed concern over recent attacks by Russian-backed regime forces on the area. He warned that these attacks, which have caused significant civilian casualties, undermine the agreements designed to reduce tensions in northern Syria. Keçeli also emphasized that the escalation in Aleppo risks greater instability, a scenario Turkey is determined to prevent.

The United Nations has raised concerns about the escalation in fighting, highlighting the humanitarian toll in the rebel-held Idlib region, where millions remain displaced and reliant on fragile support networks.

Anti-refugee sentiment in Turkey has intensified in recent years, fueled by economic hardship, political rhetoric and social tensions.

Syrians, who make up the majority of the refugee population in Turkey, face increasing hostility. Public frustration is often directed at them because they are perceived as a burden on public services and compete for jobs in an already struggling economy.

Politicians from various parties have capitalized on this discontent by using anti-refugee narratives to garner support and further polarize public opinion. These sentiments have occasionally turned violent, with documented cases of attacks on Syrian individuals, businesses and homes. In some cases, riots have occurred in cities such as Ankara and İstanbul, forcing Syrians to flee the neighborhoods in which they had settled.

Rights groups have criticized the lack of accountability and protection and warned that growing xenophobia could exacerbate the plight of vulnerable refugee communities in Turkey.