[OPINION] Orbán’s defeat: a warning sign for Erdoğan?

Adem Yavuz Arslan*

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has long been regarded as one of the most successful practitioners of what is often described as “electoral authoritarianism” in Europe. His control over the media, his redesign of the electoral system to favor his rule and the political hegemony he built through nationalist rhetoric have made him a source of inspiration for many leaders. Among them is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. While it remains debatable whether Erdoğan influenced Orbán or vice versa, one thing is clear: Both have learned a great deal from Vladimir Putin.

However, the current picture suggests that this model is now facing a serious test. According to the results of April 12 elections in Hungary, Orbán suffered a significant defeat after 16 years in power. The winner, notably, is a striking figure: Péter Magyar, a former member of Fidesz who emerged from within the system itself. Magyar’s Tisza movement not only secured victory but also gained a strong parliamentary majority, putting it in a position to reshape the political order established during Orbán’s rule.

Magyar’s rise differs from conventional opposition narratives. He is not positioned as a purely ideological adversary; rather, he appeals to conservative voters while mobilizing broader segments of society through an anti-corruption message and criticism of economic decline. In this sense, Orbán’s longstanding dominance has, for the first time, been shaken by a wave emerging from within his own political camp.

Another striking aspect of the election was the role of international support. US Vice President JD Vance openly backed Orbán ahead of the vote, a move that sparked considerable debate within Hungary. Yet, contrary to expectations, this intervention did not strengthen Orbán’s position; if anything, it backfired. For many voters, the endorsement was perceived as an attempt to mask the government’s vulnerabilities. The results suggest that such external interventions may have a limited — or even negative — impact on voter behavior.

This development should be seen not only as a turning point in Hungarian domestic politics but also as a broader signal for countries with similar governing models. At this stage, the issue extends beyond a single electoral outcome; it raises fundamental questions about the sustainability of an entire system.

Economy: the limits of populist power

For years, Orbán’s greatest advantage was the appearance of economic stability. However, rising inflation, an increasing cost of living and the erosion of the middle class in recent years have reversed this perception. When the core pillar of populist leadership, the ability to generate prosperity, weakens, the political balance it sustains begins to falter.

This dynamic is hardly foreign to Turkey. High inflation, declining incomes and the shrinking purchasing power of large segments of society are among the most critical factors testing political loyalty. Without economic recovery, sustaining political power becomes increasingly difficult.

Tensions with the West: politically useful, economically costly

Orbán’s government turned its tensions with the European Union into a tool for domestic political mobilization. However, this strategy came at a cost: the suspension of EU funds and the deterioration of the investment climate.

The broader lesson is clear: Confrontation with the West may yield short-term political gains, but it carries long-term economic consequences. Turkey’s recent zigzagging foreign policy reflects a similar balancing challenge. The delicate equilibrium between Washington, Brussels and the Gulf is no longer as flexible as it once was.

Media control is no longer enough

Orbán’s dominance over the media had long been unquestioned. Yet digitalization has introduced a new reality that limits the effectiveness of such control. Alternative media platforms, social networks and diaspora-based outlets are reshaping voter behavior.

A similar transformation is underway in Turkey. Even though much of the traditional media remains under control, it is no longer sufficient to fully manage the flow of information. Younger voters, in particular, are far more adaptable and resilient in accessing diverse sources.

One of the most notable developments among Orbán’s opponents has been their willingness to set aside ideological differences and form a coalition focused on winning elections. This is less an ideological alliance than a strategic partnership.

For Turkey, the lesson is significant: Electoral success may depend less on ideological unity and more on the ability to rally around a common objective.

What is the Orbán model and why is it shaking?

The system Orbán built did not abolish democracy outright; rather, it transformed it into a controllable structure. Elections continued, but the playing field was increasingly tilted in favor of the ruling party. For a long time this model produced what appeared to be stability.

Today, however, its fragility is becoming evident. Media control, electoral engineering and strongman imagery cannot indefinitely compensate for economic hardship.

What does this mean for Erdoğan?

Orbán’s setback does not necessarily mean Turkey will follow the same path. Each country has its own dynamics. However, it is clear that similar governance models share similar vulnerabilities.

At the top of these vulnerabilities lies the economy. In Turkey economic performance will remain the most decisive factor shaping political outcomes. In addition, a narrowing foreign policy space and a changing media environment are putting increasing pressure on the government’s ability to maintain control.

In Washington Orbán is no longer seen as a “model” but rather as a “cautionary tale.” It is increasingly possible to observe a similar framing emerging in discussions about Turkey.

What is unfolding in Budapest is not a prophecy for Ankara. But it is undeniably a powerful warning. Economic realities remain stronger than controlled media systems and engineered electoral mechanisms.

Orbán has begun to experience this firsthand. How Erdoğan responds to these dynamics will shape not only his political future but also the direction Turkey takes in the years ahead.

*Adem Yavuz Arslan is a journalist with over two decades of experience in political reporting, investigative journalism and international conflict coverage. His work has focused on Turkey’s political landscape, including detailed reporting on the 2016 coup attempt and its aftermath, as well as broader issues related to media freedom and human rights. He has reported from conflict zones such as Bosnia, Kosovo and Iraq, and has conducted in-depth research on high-profile cases, including the assassination of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. Arslan is the author of four books and has received journalism awards for his investigative work. Currently living in exile in Washington, D.C., he continues his journalism through digital media platforms, including his YouTube channel, Turkish Minute, TR724 and X.