Turkey’s defense budget has more than doubled in the past four years, increasing from about $13 billion in 2021 to a planned $32.6 billion in 2025, according to a new NATO report published in Brussels on Thursday.
That represents a steep increase, though the pace of growth depends on how the figures are measured. NATO reports Turkey’s defense spending at just over 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, putting Ankara above the alliance’s longstanding 2 percent benchmark. Turkish officials estimate spending could reach about 2.3 percent of GDP in 2025.
The surge comes as NATO itself has raised the bar. At a summit in The Hague in June, alliance leaders agreed to a new minimum of 5 percent of GDP by 2035, with 3.5 percent devoted to core defense and up to 1.5 percent for related infrastructure and resilience spending. Meeting that goal would require Turkey to more than double its current effort over the next decade.
Turkey has one of NATO’s largest militaries, with active-duty forces in the hundreds of thousands, though estimates vary depending on whether paramilitary units are included. Personnel costs, once nearly half the budget, have dropped to roughly one-third as Ankara channels more resources into procurement and modernization.
NATO data show Turkey consistently meets the alliance’s 20 percent equipment guideline, with around 30 percent of defense spending devoted to weapons in recent years. That remains slightly below NATO’s average of about 35 percent and far behind top spender Poland, which has directed more than half of its defense budget to arms.
Much of Turkey’s increased spending goes toward indigenous weapons programs, part of a long-term push for self-reliance in defense production. Flagship projects include the Altay main battle tank, the Anka-III and Kızılelma drones, a national submarine initiative and plans for a future aircraft carrier. Turkey already operates the TCG Anadolu, an amphibious assault ship designed to serve as a drone carrier.
Analysts say the challenge for Ankara is not only financial but strategic. To reach NATO’s 5 percent goal, Turkey will need to sustain high growth in defense outlays while also shifting more resources toward advanced equipment and modernization, a path that could reshape its defense industry and role within the alliance for years to come.
Numerous Western militaries and intelligence services have warned that Moscow could be ready to attack a NATO country within three to five years if the war in Ukraine ends.
Washington — which has underpinned European security since World War II — meanwhile insists it wants to shift more of the responsibility for the continent’s defenses onto European countries.
The Pentagon is currently conducting a review of its worldwide deployments and has warned it could look to scale back its footprint in Europe to focus more on China.
While some European countries have lagged behind on defense spending, NATO members close to Russia such as Poland and the Baltic states are already set to reach 5 percent of GDP in the next few years.
The United States currently spends 3.22 percent of its GDP on defense, but makes up the lion’s share of the alliance’s total expenditure in dollar terms.