Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) continued to lead the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in voter support in July, according to an average of 16 surveys.
According to MDRaporlar, a social media account that shares polling results, the July average placed the CHP at 33.0 percent, ahead of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP at 32.1 percent.
The figures were drawn from surveys conducted by 16 research companies, including ADA, ALF, AREA, ASAL, BETİMAR, GENAR, GÜNDEMAR, HBS, OPTİMAR, ORC, Özdemir, Ser-Araştırma, TEAM, THEMİS, Türkiye Raporu and Yöneylem.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) remained the third-largest party with 9.4 percent, while the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the AKP’s key ally, polled at 7.8 percent — just above Turkey’s 7 percent electoral threshold.
Turkey reduced its national threshold from 10 percent to 7 percent in April 2022, a move widely seen as intended to help the ruling party’s ally, the MHP, as it risked falling short of the former limit.
The nationalist opposition İYİ (Good) Party polled at 4.6 percent, followed by the anti-refugee Victory Party (ZP) at 4.4 percent. The Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP) dropped to 2.8 percent, the A Party to 2.0 percent and the socialist Workers Party of Turkey (TİP) to 1.6 percent. Other minor parties accounted for 2.3 percent.
Compared to June the CHP gained 0.3 points, while the AKP rose by 0.8. The YRP and MHP recorded the largest losses, falling by 0.6 and 0.5 points, respectively, MDRaporlar said.
The findings highlight continued pressure for political change after the opposition’s strong showing in the March 2024 local elections, when the CHP secured control of İstanbul, Ankara and other major cities while garnering a plurality of the nationwide vote for the first time in decades.
Although the next general election is set for 2028, speculation about early polls is growing amid economic turmoil and a sweeping crackdown on opposition figures.
The crackdown intensified after the March arrest of İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, seen as Erdoğan’s strongest rival for 2028. He was jailed on corruption charges widely viewed as politically motivated, and prosecutors have since expanded the probe to dozens of opposition-linked municipal officials.
Turkey is also struggling with a prolonged economic crisis marked by high inflation, a weakened lira and criticism of Erdoğan’s increasingly authoritarian rule.