Frost and drought have sharply reduced Turkey’s hazelnut harvest this year, a drop that is expected to push up prices in Germany, the country’s largest export market, industry officials told Deutsche Welle’s Turkish edition.
Turkey produces about 70 percent of the world’s hazelnuts and is the leading supplier to international markets. Last year it harvested 717,000 metric tons and earned $2.6 billion from exports. Germany bought 88,260 tons, representing 27.3 percent of total shipments, followed by Italy and Poland.
The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has forecast the 2025 crop at 453,000 tons, 37 percent less than last year. TMO chair Ahmet Güldal said the estimate could be optimistic given the damage observed in orchards. Other projections vary from 449,000 tons by the Agriculture Ministry to 601,000 tons by the Hazelnut Exporters’ Association, averaging about 500,000 tons — some 250,000 tons below normal yield.
Growers and exporters say production losses began in April and May, when frost damaged orchards in 26 provinces. Extreme heat in July caused what farmers describe as “tip burn,” further reducing output. National Hazelnut Council president Cem Şenocak said losses are especially severe in Ordu province, the world’s largest hazelnut-growing area, but that the full extent will only be clear once the harvest is stored.
TMO set its 2025–26 purchase price for in-shell hazelnuts at 190 to 200 Turkish lira ($4.67 to $4.91) per kilogram. Producers expect prices to exceed that level in the open market and rise through the season. Some forecast that tight supply could push prices to 400 lira ($9.83). Giresun Commodity Exchange President Hamza Bölük said a 40 percent fall in output would inevitably raise prices, similar to the recent surge in cocoa, noting that in-shell hazelnuts have risen from $3 per kilogram two years ago to $5 this year.
Farmers’ Union (Çiftçi-Sen) president Ali Bülent Erdem said official crop forecasts are inflated to pressure growers into accepting lower prices. He estimated production costs at 180 lira ($4.42) per kilogram and said farmers need at least 280 lira ($6.88) to sustain their livelihoods.
Exporters say any increase in prices will directly affect global buyers, with Germany — the top market for Turkish hazelnuts — likely to see higher retail costs for hazelnuts and related products starting in September.