Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek have adopted an optimistic stance in the face of new US tariffs, saying the country is well-positioned to weather global trade disruptions and could emerge stronger than many other countries.
Erdoğan said Wednesday that Turkey is not expecting a negative impact on its trade, production or exports despite the latest wave of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
“There is serious uncertainty in the world,” Erdoğan told lawmakers from his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), “but there is a strong economic program that illuminates Turkey’s path.”
Turkey was among a small number of countries hit with a baseline reciprocal tariff of 10 percent, significantly lower than the duty imposed on many other emerging markets.
Erdoğan said the country’s process of reducing inflation remains on track and pledged to maintain fiscal discipline and the cost-cutting measures introduced last year.
The tariff, which took effect today, applies to all goods imported into the US, including products from Turkey.
Finance Minister Şimşek echoed that confidence in an interview with the Financial Times on Tuesday, arguing that Turkey’s limited exposure to US trade — just 5 percent of its total trade volume — and declining oil prices have left it less vulnerable to external shocks. “When the dust settles, we hope and believe Turkey could positively decouple” from other emerging economies, Şimşek said.
The United States was Turkey’s ninth-largest export market in 2024, with total exports reaching $16.35 billion and imports totaling $16.23 billion, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
Turkey’s main exports to the United States include automotive parts, white goods, steel products, textiles and machinery.
The country’s economic reform program, launched 18 months ago, has helped rebuild international reserves and curb inflation, which fell to 38.1 percent in March from a peak of 75 percent last May. Interest rates currently stand at 42.5 percent.
Still, recent domestic political turmoil has tested investor confidence. The arrest of İstanbul’s opposition mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, triggered the largest protests in a decade and sent financial markets into a brief tailspin. In response, the central bank raised interest rates and spent billions to defend the lira, which has since stabilized.
While Şimşek acknowledged the economic slowdown could widen the budget deficit beyond forecasts, he stressed that the main objective remains bringing inflation under control. “We will maintain spending discipline regardless,” he said.
Despite concerns about the rule of law and political instability, analysts say Şimşek’s continued presence in government is a reassuring sign for investors. “As long as Şimşek stays, I think the market should provide an anchor against political instability,” wrote Tim Ash, a strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.