Turkey’s rule of law metrics have fallen to their lowest levels since 1980 in the years following a July 15, 2016 attempted coup, according to data published by Our World in Data.
The sharp decline contrasts with earlier periods when even successful military interventions caused less institutional damage.
The V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) index measures rule of law components on a 0–1 scale, with 0 representing a complete absence and 1 representing the highest standard.
Components include government compliance with legal frameworks (30 percent), judicial independence (25 percent), transparency of legislation (15 percent), access to justice (15 percent), corruption control (10 percent) and bureaucratic impartiality (5 percent).
The V-Dem index shows Turkey reached its highest point of 0.741 in 2002 during democratic reforms and EU accession negotiations. However, the index began to decline around 2010, dropping from 0.651 in 2009 to 0.535 in 2010.
This downward trend accelerated sharply after the failed coup, with the index falling from 0.375 in 2015 to 0.238 in 2016, and further to 0.143 by 2017 — reaching unprecedented levels.
After the September 12, 1980 military coup, Turkey’s rule of law index dropped from 0.612 in 1980 to 0.446 in 1981–1982, before slightly improving to 0.469 by 1983 when civilian rule was restored. By 1984, after the return to civilian government, the index rose to 0.640, and by 1990, it had reached 0.648.
After the February 28, 1997 “post-modern coup,” when the military pressured the civilian government to resign without directly taking power, the index actually rose from 0.667 in 1996 to 0.701 in 1997.
The years following that intervention remained stable, with the index at 0.691 in 1998, 0.683 in 1999, and 0.690 in 2000, before peaking at 0.741 in 2002 as Turkey began European Union accession talks. What stands out in this pattern is that successful military coups in 1980 and 1997 did not cause the same level of institutional collapse.
This suggests the government’s response to the failed 2016 coup had more serious consequences than past military takeovers.
Broken down by component, the post-2016 collapse shows a steep drop in judicial independence (from 0.71 in 2016 to 0.19 in 2022) and government compliance with law (from 0.68 in 2016 to 0.14 in 2022).
In contrast, during the three years following the 1980 coup, judicial independence never dropped below 0.41.
Experts link the decline to widespread purges after the failed coup, including the dismissal of over 4,362 judges and prosecutors, with investigations opened into some 4,370 legal professionals.
The purge was followed by 2017 constitutional reforms that shifted Turkey to a presidential system, concentrating executive power and weakening institutional checks. The 2017 constitutional reforms, approved by nationwide referendum, changed Turkey from a parliamentary system to an executive presidency, concentrating power in the hands of the president.
Key changes included abolishing the prime minister’s office, giving the president authority to appoint ministers directly and expanding presidential control over judicial appointments.
Under the new system, the president gained the power to appoint four of the 13 members of the Council of Judges and Prosecutors (HSK), while parliament selected the remaining seven. This change weakened judicial independence by reducing the judiciary’s role in governing itself and increasing executive control.
The reforms also aligned parliamentary and presidential elections every five years, removed the president’s obligation to remain nonpartisan and introduced new hurdles for parliament to hold the executive accountable.
Critics said the changes eroded checks and balances by centralizing authority in the presidency.
International watchdogs, including the European Commission and the Venice Commission, have repeatedly raised concerns about judicial independence in Turkey since 2016.
The UN special rapporteur on judicial independence has highlighted systemic political interference, while Freedom House ranked Turkey among the top 10 countries showing the sharpest decline in freedoms.
After the 2016 coup attempt, the rule of law index remained at record lows: 0.138 in 2018, 0.140 in 2019 and reaching its lowest point of 0.134 in 2020.
In recent years, there has been a slight recovery with 0.142 in 2021, 0.137 in 2022, 0.143 in 2023 and 0.180 in 2024. This marks an 82 percent decline from the 2002 high of 0.741.
The V-Dem project, based at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, compiles its data through assessments by about 3,500 country experts worldwide, along with research by its own scholars on political institutions and human rights protections.