The number of people aged 65 and over in Turkey has increased by 20.7 percent over the past five years, surpassing 9 million in 2024, according to official data released on Thursday.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released its “Elderly Statistics, 2024” report, which shows that the elderly population grew from 7.55 million in 2019 to 9.11 million in 2024, a development that can have social and economic consequences in the future.
The proportion of elderly individuals in the total population also rose from 9.1 percent in 2019 to 10.6 percent in 2024, TurkStat data show. Of the elderly population, 44.6 percent were men, while 55.4 percent were women.
In 2024, 63.4 percent of Turkey’s elderly population was aged 65-74, while 28.8 percent were in the 75-84 age group. Those aged 85 and older accounted for 7.8 percent of the elderly population. Additionally, 7,632 individuals in Turkey were recorded as centenarians.
In the wake of the looming threat of an aging population, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been calling on Turkey’s women for years to have at least three children to boost the country’s population, drawing the anger of feminist groups and women’s rights associations. He also advises “Muslim families” not to use birth control or family planning and opposes C-sections as well.
Meanwhile, life expectancy at birth in Turkey is 77.3 years, with an average of 74.7 years for men and 80.0 years for women, according to TurkStat’s “Life Tables, 2021-2023” report.
Elderly population expected to increase further
According to Turkey’s population projections based on current demographic trends, the elderly population is expected to grow further, reaching 13.5 percent of the total population in 2030, 17.9 percent in 2040, 27 percent in 2060, 33.4 percent in 2080 and 33.6 percent in 2100. In a scenario assuming a continued decline in fertility rates, the elderly population could even rise to 42.8 percent of the total by 2100.
The report also showed an increase in the old-age dependency ratio, which defines the number of individuals aged 65 or older per 100 people of working age between 20 to 64 years old.
The old-age dependency ratio increased from 13.4 percent in 2019 to 15.5 percent in 2024 in Turkey.
This ratio is expected to rise to 19.5 percent in 2030, 26.5 percent in 2040 and 45.5 percent in 2060. By 2080, it is expected to reach 61.9 percent, according to projections, which could pose a significant challenge to the country’s economy due to the declining number of working-age people.
The evolution of old-age to working-age ratios depends on mortality rates, fertility rates and migration.
Erdoğan seeks to reverse the trend
In a bid to boost birth rates, Erdoğan announced in January financial incentives as he launched what his government calls Turkey’s “Year of the Family.”
Erdoğan announced a series of measures as part of the “Family and Youth Fund” to counteract Turkey’s declining population growth, which included interest-free loans for first marriages and new childbirth support packages
He talked about the urgency of reversing the population trend, pointing out that Turkey’s annual population growth rate dropped from 2.53 percent in 2015 to 0.23 percent in 2024.
“If we do not take the necessary measures, the problem will reach irreparable proportions,” he warned, citing delayed marriages, rising divorce rates and an aging population as additional problems.