A recent survey reveals that Turkey’s presidential election could go to a second round, with opposition candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu, the influential mayor of İstanbul, holding a significant lead over incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Aytunç Erkin, a columnist for the Nefes news website, shared the results of a survey conducted by the Social Impact Research Center (TEAM) on approximately 6,000 participants in an article on Tuesday.
According to the survey results, which measured voter preference in a potential three-way race involving Erdoğan, İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş — both mayors from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) — the election would go to a second round, where İmamoğlu emerges as the clear frontrunner.
In the first round Erdoğan leads with 37 percent, followed closely by İmamoğlu at 35.9 percent, while Yavaş secures 19.7 percent. With no candidate crossing the 50 percent threshold, the top two candidates advance to a runoff.
In a direct head-to-head matchup, İmamoğlu holds a commanding lead, securing 57.2 percent of the vote against Erdoğan’s 42.8 percent, after undecided voters are distributed.
Erkin stated that TEAM’s survey, which he mentioned is currently on CHP leader Özgür Özel’s desk, strengthens the argument within the party that İmamoğlu should be its candidate in the next presidential election. Meanwhile, supporters of Yavaş point to other surveys where he reportedly performs better against Erdoğan.
Turkey is slated to hold the next presidential and parliamentary elections in 2028, but there has been frequent talk recently among the opposition about holding early elections.
İmamoğlu, seen as the strongest political rival of Erdoğan, said in a video posted on X in late January that holding early elections is the key to eliminating the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) growing pressure on the opposition and on dissenting voices.
Referring to a recent announcement made by CHP leader Özel about the launch of the process to determine the next CHP presidential candidate, İmamoğlu said his party would democratically elect its presidential candidate with the votes of the party’s more than 1.5 million members.
The CHP’s decision to launch the process to determine its presidential candidate comes in the wake of growing judicial pressure on the party over the past several months, which saw the arrest of several party mayors in İstanbul and their removal from office on what many say are politically motivated charges.
Two investigations were launched into İmamoğlu last month, one coming shortly after he allegedly targeted an expert witness, claiming the witness was being “cherry-picked” by the government for trials involving his party, and the other on accusations of targeting the city’s chief public prosecutor, who is overseeing the latest probes into the party’s prominent figures.
There are claims that Erdoğan wants to sideline İmamoğlu — the mostly likely candidate to challenge him if he tries to seek another term as president — with investigations targeting CHP municipalities.
The mayor had already been sentenced to more than two years in prison and barred from politics in December 2022 for allegedly insulting members of Turkey’s Supreme Election Board (YSK). The mayor faces a political ban if his conviction is upheld by an appeals court.