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[OPINION] Small Trumps, big shifts: the global populist wave

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Adem Yavuz Arslan*

As a Turkish journalist living in exile, I have had the unsettling experience of observing political changes from a distance — watching democracy erode and authoritarianism rise in real time in my home country. As someone who once reported from Turkey, where the shift towards autocracy has been deeply felt, I can’t help but notice striking parallels between the political trajectory of my home country and the rise of populist movements around the world, particularly those influenced by figures like Donald Trump.

When Trump assumed office on January 20, his early actions stirred significant debate. Among the most high profile were his decisions to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, withdraw from the World Health Organization and pardon defendants involved in the attack on US Capitol on January 6, 2021. These moves, while controversial, were emblematic of his broader populist agenda: challenging global norms, rejecting multilateralism and signaling to his supporters that his presidency would not be bound by the expectations of the political elite.

As someone who has watched the political landscape shift in Turkey, these actions felt somewhat familiar. While the specifics of each country’s context are distinct, there is a shared thread that links populist leaders globally: the idea that existing institutions and policies often serve the interests of a disconnected elite rather than the average citizen. Whether it’s Trump in the US, or President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, or other figures on the world stage, the populist rhetoric is strikingly similar. It taps into frustrations, promises and change and offers a vision of governance that puts the people, in their view, first.

For Trump, his early executive actions — pulling out of international agreements, challenging longstanding norms and defying institutional expectations — were more than policy decisions. They were bold statements meant to disrupt a political system he believes is broken. In this, he was not so much of an outlier as a symptom of a growing global trend: a deep disillusionment with traditional politics and a yearning for leadership that promises swift action and a break from the status quo.

In many ways, these early moves can be seen as a reflection of what was happening in other parts of the world. Populist leaders, whether in Europe, Latin America or Asia, have similarly positioned themselves against established institutions, promising to shake up systems that have long seemed out of touch with ordinary people’s concerns. For me as a journalist in exile, I have seen how such leaders often capitalize on fears of globalization, immigration and the rapid social changes that challenge traditional ways of life. Trump’s presidency was, in this sense, a response to these very anxieties — a leader who, for many, seemed willing to speak plainly and act decisively, unburdened by political correctness.

One of the most notable of Trump’s early decisions was his stance on birthright citizenship, which he argued should be re-examined, along with his broader goal of tightening immigration laws. These are issues that resonate with many populist movements across the world, including in Turkey, where nationalism has grown as a political force in recent years. Leaders like Trump and Erdoğan have found common ground in their calls to protect national identity and promote sovereignty, all while often invoking a sense of cultural loss or economic insecurity among their constituents.

What I find fascinating is how these leaders — often labeled as “authoritarian” or “populist” — are creating a new blueprint for governance in the 21st century. While there’s certainly room for debate about the impact of Trump’s policies, it’s undeniable that his political approach has inspired many others. Around the globe, smaller Trumps are rising, leaders who are not merely imitating him but are adapting his playbook to fit their own national contexts. These leaders may not have the same level of charisma or media attention as Trump, but they share his populist instincts: to challenge entrenched elites, to speak directly to the people and to promise quick and radical change.

The question, of course, is whether these leaders will be able to sustain their power and deliver on their promises. In many ways, they face the same challenges that Trump faces: the struggle to balance populist rhetoric with effective governance, the pushback from established political institutions and the growing global interconnectedness that complicates unilateral action.

Being in exile has often prompted me to reflect on the political landscape in Turkey, where the erosion of democratic institutions and a growing sense of authoritarianism have shaped the daily lives of millions. It’s impossible to ignore the parallels with what we saw under Trump in the US, especially in terms of how both leaders capitalized on dissatisfaction with traditional politics. Both have faced significant criticism for undermining democratic norms, but they have also garnered deep support from large portions of their populations, who believe that these leaders are standing up for their interests against an out-of-touch political elite.

There is, of course, a key difference between these leaders and the traditional democratic frameworks many of us have grown accustomed to. What Trump and others like him represent is a shift away from conventional political discourse, one that is less concerned with compromise and more focused on delivering on broad, sweeping promises — promises that resonate with voters who feel left behind by globalization or traditional politics. The rise of these smaller Trumps is not so much a rejection of democracy but a transformation of it. It’s a kind of democracy reshaped by populist demands, where the will of the people is expressed in ways that challenge traditional checks and balances.

So what does this mean for the future? Are we witnessing the death of democracy, or simply its evolution into something different? In many ways, the political landscape is more fragmented than ever, with populist movements challenging the established norms that have governed many countries for decades. But even as these leaders gain influence, they also face increasing pressure to prove that their new vision for governance can deliver tangible results for their citizens.

In the end, what we are seeing is not just a reaction to Trump, but a global political shift that is playing out in real time. The small Trumps of the world are learning from his successes and failures, adapting his style to their own political environments. Whether this trend will result in lasting changes to global politics or lead to a new form of political stability is uncertain, but one thing is clear: The world is changing, and the idea of democracy is being redefined in ways we have yet to fully comprehend.

*Adem Yavuz Arslan is a Turkish journalist and writer who currently lives in exile in Washington, D.C.

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