A government committee in Israel has warned about a potential war with Turkey due to a conflict of interests in Syria following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, urging the Israeli government to take measures to seriously address the issue, according to Israeli media.
The Nagel Committee, headed by former Israeli national security council chief Jacob Nagel, issued its report on Monday.
The report talked about how recent developments in Syria, where an alliance of Turkey-backed rebels toppled the Assad regime, have made Turkey pose a “greater threat” to Israel’s security by way of its presence in Syria than Iran did through its alliance with the Assad regime, if it backs a hostile “Sunni Islamist” force in Damascus.
The report said some of the militias and militiamen previously had links to groups such as al-Qaeda and that the “origins of the rebels and their leaders” should not be overlooked.
The rebel alliance that ousted Assad was led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as the al-Nusra Front. The HTS, designated as a terrorist group by Turkey and the US, was the main affiliate of al-Qaeda in Syria until 2017, when it formally severed ties with the global terrorist group.
“For this reason, it must be considered that Israel may face a new threat arising in Syria, which in some respects could be no less severe than the previous one. This threat could take the form of an extreme Sunni force that would also refuse to recognize the very existence of Israel,” the committee said.
“Furthermore, since the Sunni rebels will wield political power by virtue of their central control in Syria, a greater threat may emerge from them than the Iranian threat, which has been limited due to Israel’s ongoing actions, as well as the restrictions placed on Iran by the sovereign Syrian state.”
The committee warned that difficulties could intensify if the Syrian force effectively became a Turkish proxy, “as part of Turkey’s ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire to its former glory.”
The report, along with recommendations, was passed on to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Monday.
The recommendations provide a comprehensive strategy for addressing any potential threats Israel may face, including an increase in the country’s defense budget, strengthening military capabilities and bolstering border security.
The report comes as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned this week that Ankara was ready to intervene to prevent any division of Syria and would also take “necessary measures” if they noticed the “slightest risk.”
It also comes as Israel continues its brutal war on Gaza, killing over 45,885 Palestinians and having launched strikes on Lebanon and Syria.
Turkey has been one of the most outspoken critics of Israel’s war on Gaza, although the government of Erdoğan faces accusations due to their continued trade with Israel despite an embargo imposed last May.
Erdoğan’s claims about war with Israel
Last year Erdoğan claimed Israeli had plans to attack Turkey following the offensives in Gaza and Lebanon.
He asserted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government harbors expansionist ambitions that may target parts of Anatolia.
“Israel’s expansionist agenda, driven by religious fanaticism, does not stop at Gaza. Their next target may well be our homeland,” Erdoğan said last September.
However, the likelihood of such a development was denied by Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who said Israel has never had any such plans against Turkey.
“On the contrary, we have great respect to the people of Turkey, and they have great respect for the people of Israel. We have longstanding relations between the peoples, and the peoples will prevail over all voices that are adverse to friendship and coexistence,” Herzog said last October.
Erdoğan’s remarks prompted the opposition to call for a closed session in parliament to be briefed on what kind of a threat Israel poses to Turkey.
Critics accused Erdoğan of seeking to reinvigorate support for his party from the religious and nationalist circles of society by raising such fears and capitalizing on their dislike for the Israeli government and its policies.
Herzog had talks in Ankara with Erdoğan in March 2022, in the first visit by an Israeli president since 2007 amid a brief normalization in relations that were strained again after the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel war in October 2023.