Turkey’s environment minister, Murat Kurum, has warned that 600,000 houses in İstanbul have been identified as being at risk of collapsing in the event of a massive earthquake that seismologists predict is likely to strike the city of 16 million by 2030, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported on Friday.
Situated near the North Anatolian Fault, İstanbul is vulnerable to earthquakes.
In 2001, two years after a 7.4-magnitude earthquake left 17,000 people dead in northwest Turkey on August 17, experts calculated a 65 percent probability that a quake with a magnitude above 7 would occur before 2030 in the same region — which includes İstanbul.
The risk climbs to 75 percent in 50 years and 95 percent in 90 years.
Kurum told Anadolu on the anniversary of the 1999 earthquake on Friday that one in every five houses in İstanbul — nearly 1.5 million — is deemed to be of unstable construction, with approximately 600,000 homes at risk of being destroyed in the first few minutes of a potential earthquake.
According to the minister at least 2.5 million people in İstanbul are at risk, and the possible earthquake is expected to affect not only the country’s business hub but Turkey as a whole.
“An earthquake in İstanbul will cause serious problems in the areas of economy, trade, tourism, education, defense and transportation,” Kurum said.
“We are fully aware of the gravity of this situation. … We have transformed some of the 1.5 million risky buildings we identified in İstanbul. We have increased the earthquake resistance of public buildings, including education and healthcare structures.”
In the event of a major earthquake in the Marmara region, not only will İstanbul be affected, but also nearby cities and industrial zones. Experts express concern about potential secondary disasters, such as fires and chemical leaks, which could exacerbate the impact of an earthquake.
Before the administration of İstanbul was taken over by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) after the 2019 elections, the city had been under the governance of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has been ruling Turkey as a single-party government since 2002.
The AKP is accused of failing to take necessary precautions against a possible earthquake in the city, having destroyed much of its green areas and allowing high-rise buildings and shoddy construction in the city despite the risk of an earthquake.