The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), which emerged victorious from the latest municipal elections, relegating the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to second place for the first time in 22 years, has been losing votes since then, while support for the AKP has been increasing, according to a recent opinion poll.
In the March 31 local elections, the CHP emerged as the leading party for the first time in 47 years, securing 37.7 percent of the vote, maintaining control of key cities and securing substantial gains in other regions, while the AKP came in second, garnering only 35.4 percent of the vote.
The results of Metropoll’s “Turkey’s Pulse” surveys for April, May and June, which were announced on Thursday on X by Professor Özer Sencar, the owner of the company, showed that voter preferences shifted in the opposite direction in the three months since the elections.
Change in the vote support of the parties according to Turkey's Pulse Research for April, May and June conducted by Metropoll after the 31 March Local Election. pic.twitter.com/ssW9iD52pz
— Ozer Sencar (@ozersencar1) July 11, 2024
In the three Metropoll surveys, the respondents, varying between 1,500 and 2,235 people, were asked, “Which party would you vote for if a general election were to be held this Sunday?”
According to a comparative table shared by Sencar, while the CHP’s votes declined from 23.8 percent to 22.5 percent from April to June, support for the ruling AKP increased from 20.6 percent to 22.2 percent in the same period.
The survey results were also compared to the results of the May 2023 parliamentary elections where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) received 35.3 percent of the nationwide vote, while the CHP garnered 25.4 percent.
The polls show that even though the votes of CHP and AKP have started to change in opposite directions, Turkey’s main opposition maintains its position as the leading party.
The votes of the AKP’s far-right ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), also decreased from 5.2 percent in April to 4.8 percent in June, after the party received 10 percent in the May 2023 parliamentary elections and 4.9 percent in the local elections earlier this year.
Many attribute the decrease in the party’s vote share to the 2022 murder of Sinan Ateş, an academic and former leader of the Grey Wolves (Ülkü Ocakları), the youth wing of the MHP, which sent shockwaves across the country, sparking a debate about power struggles among the country’s nationalists.
Meanwhile, journalist Yavuz Baydar said in a tweet on Thursday that the most important takeaway from the Metropoll surveys’ results was the percentage of undecided, protesting and unresponsive voters, which is around 35 percent.
“[This is] higher than any party. Mistrust in the Turkish political class and system remains peaked. Huge crisis,” the journalist added.
Most important takeaway from this:
Undecided + Protest votes are close to 30 %. Together w unresponsive 35 %.
Higher than ny party.Mistrust to Turkish political class + system remain peaked.
Huge crisis. @radargazete @APHClarkson @SinanCiddi @ihsandagi https://t.co/v4lXNarFTo— YavuzBaydar (@yavuzbaydar4) July 11, 2024
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