 suffered a historic defeat in the March 31 local elections due to economic deterioration in the country accompanied by corruption and nepotism, according to a report from the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).){kind=link}
Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered a historic defeat in the March 31 local elections due to economic deterioration in the country accompanied by corruption and nepotism, according to a report from the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
The 8-page SWP report, titled “Local elections in Turkey: New open spaces and German-Turkish areas of cooperation,” was drafted by researchers from the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at the SWP.
In the local elections on March 31, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) emerged as the leading party for the first time in 47 years, securing 37.7 percent of the vote, maintaining control of key cities and securing substantial gains in other regions, while the AKP, for the first time in 22 years, came in second, garnering only 35.4 percent of the vote and losing in many of its former strongholds.
The report said against the background of a record inflation, currently at over 65 percent, strict monetary policy and the accompanying loss of purchasing power among urban population groups, the election was a test of the public sentiment for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Even the president acknowledged before the local elections that the latest increases in the minimum wage and pensions have failed to keep pace with the rapid surge in inflation.
“Just like everywhere else in the world, we are grappling with the soaring cost of living caused by debilitating inflation. In an environment of high inflation, whatever we offer seems to disappear into a bottomless pit,” Erdoğan said in a campaign speech in central Turkey.
“This was punished – not only for the economic misery, but also for increasing corruption and nepotism,” said the report, while referring to the possible reasons behind the AKP’s election defeat.
Over the past several years Turkey has been suffering from a deteriorating economy, with high inflation and unemployment as well as a poor human rights record. President Erdoğan is criticized for mishandling the economy, emptying the state’s coffers and establishing one-man rule in the country where dissent is suppressed and opponents are jailed on politically motivated charges.
Erdoğan and his party are also widely criticized for filling state posts with their cronies and disregarding merit-based appointments.
According to the report the AKP and its election ally, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), suffered a loss of public support despite enjoying a wide range of advantages such as having a majority in parliament (319 out of 594 seats), unrestricted access to state resources and control of the media, which allows them to determine the public discourse.
Weak candidates
The lineup of mayoral candidates was another factor that weakened the AKP’s chances of winning in the local elections, according to the report, which said Erdoğan mostly preferred low-profile candidates who would not give future challengers within the party a power base.
In İstanbul AKP mayoral candidate Murat Kurum, a former minister, was defeated by a large margin by the city’s incumbent mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, although Erdoğan, who was hoping to win İstanbul back from the CHP, campaigned along with Kurum.
İmamoğlu’s victory undoubtedly consolidated his position as Erdoğan’s strongest challenger in the coming years and as a promising candidate in the next presidential election, slated for 2028, the SWP report said.
When German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier paid his first official visit to Turkey last month during which he met with İmamoğlu and then President Erdoğan, comments on social media and in the German press said the sequence of Steinmeier’s meetings with İmamoğlu and Erdoğan show that İmamoğlu is seen as the new leader of Turkey who will succeed Erdoğan.
The election results, among other things, have weakened the prospects of a constitutional amendment that would make it possible for Erdoğan to run for president for another term, the report also said, while calling the March 31 local elections “a good starting point” for the opposition to work against the consolidation of an authoritarian system and prepare for the post-Erdoğan era.
Erdoğan was elected president again in May. He is not eligible to run for another term unless a constitutional amendment is passed to pave the way for another candidacy since he has already served two terms as president.
Presidents are elected for a five-year renewable term in Turkey, according to its constitution.
According to the report, the local elections also gave the CHP the opportunity to improve the everyday lives of broad swathes of voters through clever local politics and to distinguish itself as a future governing party.
Turkey’s next general election is also scheduled for 2028.
More space for Turkish-German cooperation
Among other things, the local elections have opened up new areas of cooperation for CHP-run municipalities with German and European cities, the SWP said in its report.
The report said a reinvigoration of relations between Germany and Turkey now seems to be achievable primarily through economic ties and cooperation at the local level, given the fact that the CHP governs significantly more municipalities than before.
“This opens up new areas of cooperation between German and Turkish cities and communities. There are currently over 80 German-Turkish city partnerships. Town twinning not only promotes connections between societies; They also create space for municipal cooperation and the exchange of experiences on topics such as environmental protection, sustainable urban development, digitalization, protection of marginalized groups and refugees, and youth participation,” said the report, adding that Germany could also financially support opposition municipalities in the wake of their failure to get funds from the government to realize some of their projects.
In a controversial statement before the local elections, Erdoğan hinted that the government may withhold support to municipalities run by the opposition. He had to backtrack on his remarks later in the wake of criticism.
The report recalled that the central government made it impossible for the CHP-run İstanbul municipality to borrow domestically in recent years, making it impossible to afford the extension of a rail network in the city.
“This is is where Germany could come into play by financially supporting communities with infrastructure and climate projects, such as the expansion of rail transport and digitalization,” the report added.