A recent publication by the German Bertelsmann Stiftung Foundation highlights Turkey’s deepening autocratic rule, inefficient system of governance and economic instability.
Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) 2024 country report on Turkey presents an in-depth analysis for the period from February 1, 2021 to January 31, 2023 and assesses the country’s democracy and market economy as well as the quality of governance. According to the report this period in Turkey is characterized by the consolidation of autocratic rule, an overly centralized and inefficient government system and a fragile economy.
“A contentious referendum in April 2017 confirmed [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan’s constitutional changes and the establishment of a presidential republic, ending Türkiye’s long-standing tradition of parliamentary democracy. In 2018, Erdoğan was elected as Türkiye’s first executive president under the new presidential system. Since then, authoritarian tendencies have been entrenched in the ‘New Türkiye.’ The Presidential Palace has taken charge of virtually every aspect of Turkish politics and policy,” the publication said.
The report highlights the consolidation of autocratic governance, notably following a failed coup in 2016, which led to extensive restrictions embedded in regular legislation, the erosion of the rule of law, dwindling fundamental freedoms and the stifling of independent media.
The analysis of governance reveals a highly centralized decision-making process led by the president, which leads to inefficiency and a lack of coordination between state institutions. The report criticizes the erosion of expertise within the state apparatus and the prevalence of clientelism and nepotism.
Turkey’s economy is described as fragile, with structural deficiencies and weakened institutional frameworks.
The report notes that Turkey is struggling with socio-economic development, the organization of market competition, monetary and fiscal stability, property rights, the welfare system and economic performance. The challenges of sustainability, particularly environmental and climate policy, are also highlighted.
The failure of the opposition to present a viable alternative in the midst of a repressive political climate suggests bleak prospects for Turkey’s political and economic future and is leading to a wave of emigration, particularly among the young and educated, according to the report.
The BTI has analyzed and evaluated the quality of democracy, market economy and governance in the currently 137 developing and transition countries every two years since 2004.
According to the BTI, the quality of democracy in developing countries “has been in steady decline over the past 20 years.”
“The latest findings of the Transformation Index of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, now in its tenth edition, show that out of 137 countries surveyed, only 63 remain democracies, while a majority are classified as autocracies,” the BTI said.
According to the BTI, Turkey exemplifies how “gradual erosion of democracy can provide a pathway for the establishment of authoritarian rule.”
“A coup attempt in July 2016, allegedly orchestrated by the Gülen movement, accelerated Türkiye’s move toward autocracy. This resulted in a widespread crackdown on regime critics and the purge of tens of thousands of public sector employees, including police officers, teachers and professors,” the report said.
Turkey survived a coup attempt in 2016, which the government accuses the Gülen movement, a faith-based group that focuses on science education and interfaith and intercultural dialogue and is inspired by Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen, of orchestrating. The abortive putsch was followed by a two-year-long state of emergency declared by the government.
The Gülen movement strongly denies any involvement.
The crackdown on alleged coup-plotters, activists, human rights defenders and political opponents has helped Erdoğan further cement the control he has amassed over Turkey, while also complicating his relations with traditional Western allies and putting a dampener on the foreign investment climate because of concerns about the rule of law.
Turkey scored 4.23 in terms of political transformation and ranked 83rd among the 137 countries with a qualification of moderate autocracy.
With respect to economic transformation, Turkey fared slightly better, with a score of 5.68, and was ranked 56th.
In the governance index, which includes gradients such as rule of law and the independence of the judiciary, Turkey demonstrated a weak performance, with a score of 3.75, putting it in 104th place among the 137 countries. These figures give Turkey an average score of 4.96 on a scale of 1 to 10, putting it in 74th place among the countries surveyed, a drop of 11 places compared to the BTI 2022, placing it behind countries like Niger, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia and Tunisia.