Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the presidential candidate of an opposition bloc, is likely to win the upcoming May 14 elections in Turkey by securing 53.1 percent of the vote in the first round, a new poll conducted by the ORC Research Company suggests.
The survey indicates that despite the emergence of rival opposition candidates, Kılıçdaroğlu will be able to defeat President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose share of the vote is predicted to come in at 42.3 percent.
The ORC survey was conducted on 4,540 participants between March 11 and 15 across 42 provinces. The participants were asked to state their preferred candidate if an election were to be held the coming Sunday.
With Kılıçdaroğlu, the joint candidate of the Nation Alliance, garnering 53.1 percent of the vote to Erdoğan’s 42.3 percent, the gap between the two candidates is 10.8 points.
The survey results also revealed that Muharrem İnce, the candidate of the Homeland (Memleket) Party, received 3.1 percent of the vote, while Sinan Oğan, the candidate of a bloc of four far-right parties, received 1.5 percent.
2023 Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimi
Aday Tercihleri"Bu Pazar seçim olsa hangi adaya oy verirdiniz?"
•Kılıçdaroğlu %53,1
•Erdoğan %42,3
•İnce %3,1
•Oğan %1,5Tarih: 11-15 Mart 2023 pic.twitter.com/IHS2YQGpQO
— ORC ARAŞTIRMA (@orc_arastirma) March 17, 2023
The ORC survey is considered significant because it predicted the results of the 2018 elections in Turkey more accurately than other pollsters.
The candidacy of Kılıçdaroğlu, chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), was announced by an opposition bloc of six parties, known as the Nation Alliance, on March 6 after a last-minute dispute was resolved.
Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) garnered 28.1 percent of the vote in the ORC survey, the CHP 28.3 percent, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) 9.3 percent and the İYİ (Good) Party, an election ally of the CHP, got 11.7 percent, while the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), an election ally of the AKP, received 6.3 percent.
The HDP’s role is critical as it’s viewed as the kingmaker in the presidential election. The party is expected to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu.
2023 Milletvekili Genel Seçimi
Oy Tercihleri"Bu Pazar seçim olsa hangi partiye oy verirdiniz?" pic.twitter.com/kwX0xbfRJX
— ORC ARAŞTIRMA (@orc_arastirma) March 17, 2023
Erdoğan, who has been in power for 20 years, is facing his toughest challenge yet, as an increasing number of opinion polls show him trailing Kılıçdaroğlu.
The president has been held responsible for the country’s worst economic crisis in recent years and for a poor response to the twin earthquakes that hit the country’s south, killing tens of thousands and leaving millions homeless last month.