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Poll shows Turkey’s opposition bloc edging ahead of Erdoğan’s alliance

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Public Alliance, which includes his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its ally, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), would have lost to the country’s opposition bloc if a general election were to have been held in January, according to a survey conducted by Aksoy Research.

When asked “Which political party would you vote for if a general election were to be held this Sunday?” 42.6 percent of respondents said they would vote for the parties in the opposition bloc, while 41 percent said they would support the AKP-MHP alliance.

According to the survey, the ruling AKP’s vote would have stood at 33.3 percent in a January election, while its ally, the MHP, would have received only 7.7 percent of the vote.

The poll further showed that the parties in the opposition bloc, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), the nationalist İYİ (Good) Party, the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), the Future Party (GP) and the Felicity Party (SP) would have garnered between 25.5 percent and 0.2 percent of the vote.

The ruling AKP, which increased its votes by 4.8 percent in total in the last quarter of 2022, lost 1.2 percent of its votes in January, data from Aksoy Research also revealed.

Commenting on the results of the poll, Aksoy Research founder Ertan Aksoy said the potential exists for a downward trend in the AKP’s vote as the elections slated for May approach, attributing this to an “election economy” that could trigger a surge in inflation.

In the last general election, held in June 2018, the AKP garnered a nationwide vote of 42.6 percent. However, public surveys have increasingly been showing the party’s public support to be slipping.

Erdoğan, whose ruling AKP has been in power as a single-party government since 2002, was elected president in 2014 and reelected in 2018. His election in 2018 was under a presidential system as Turkey switched from a parliamentary to a presidential system of governance with a public referendum in 2017. Under the presidential system, Erdoğan is accused of establishing one-man rule, destroying the separation of powers and silencing dissent.

The AKP government launched a massive crackdown on non-loyalist citizens following a failed coup in July 2016 as thousands of people were jailed on trumped-up terrorism or coup charges.

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