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Erdoğan takes lead over potential rivals in poll following Assad’s ouster

People hold a banner featuring Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as members of the Syrian community and supporters gather to celebrate the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in the face of an offensive by Islamist-led rebels, in İstanbul on December 8, 2024. Islamist-led rebels toppled Syria's longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad in a lightning offensive that a UN envoy called "a watershed moment" for the nation marred by civil war. (Photo by Yasin AKGUL / AFP)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has gained an edge over key opposition figures in a new poll, a development analysts attribute to his administration’s active role in Syria’s regime change with the ouster of Bashar al-Assad, the Velev news website reported on Monday.

The survey, conducted by Asal Research and involving 1,860 respondents, measured voter preferences for the next presidential election. Erdoğan, the leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), outperformed Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in head-to-head matchups.

Erdoğan trailed both Yavaş and İmamoğlu in earlier polls, reflecting public dissatisfaction with economic issues and a loss of support in major cities during recent local elections.

In a hypothetical Erdoğan-Yavaş race, now Erdoğan secured 42 percent support compared to Yavaş’s 39.4 percent, with 18.6 percent of respondents undecided. Against İmamoğlu, Erdoğan extended his lead, reaching 45.5 percent of the popular vote, while the Istanbul mayor garnered 36.3 percent, with 18.2 percent expressing no opinion.

Analysts suggest Erdoğan’s strengthened position is linked to recent developments in Syria, where Turkey played a pivotal role in Assad regime’s fall. Erdoğan’s assertive stance in the region appears to have bolstered his domestic support, particularly among nationalist voters.

Political analysts note that Erdoğan’s focus on foreign policy has helped shift public perception amid economic challenges at home.

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