Turkey’s long-time relationship with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels had drawn little attention until recently — but since the Islamists took over Syria, both sides have sought to profit from the ties, analysts say.
Many Western countries have been wrestling with their approach to HTS, which is rooted in the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda and has largely been branded a terrorist organization, despite moderating its rhetoric.
“No one knows them as well as we do,” Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, said last week, adding that Ankara had “stood by [HTS] for years” and convinced Russia and Iran not to halt their offensive that ousted strongman Bashar al-Assad.
Despite having a working relationship, Ankara had no direct link to the offensive, with Fidan on Wednesday telling Al Jazeera it was “not a takeover” by Turkey, as incoming US president Donald Trump had described it.
“HTS is not a Turkish marionette, like some other Syrian rebel factions, but it has worked closely with the Turks for a long time and it needs Turkish support,” said Aron Lund, a Middle East specialist at the Century International think tank.
In an interview published Wednesday by Turkey’s pro-government Yeni Şafak daily, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, now using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, said his government would have a “strategic relationship” with Ankara.
‘Shepherding Syria’s stabilization’
In a carefully-coordinated and highly symbolic move illustrating the closeness of the two sides, Turkey’s spy chief İbrahim Kalın, who is close to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was the first international figure to visit Damascus. There, he met Jolani just four days after Assad fled to Russia.
“Syria’s new leaders are very preoccupied with building legitimacy and contacts with foreign countries,” Lund told Agence France-Presse.
“They don’t really have the sort of diplomatic contacts or experience needed to argue their case on the international level, so they benefit quite a lot from Ankara’s assistance.”
Earlier this week, Turkey said it was “ready to provide” military assistance to the new Syrian leadership.
And on Wednesday, Fidan urged governments and international bodies such as the United Nations, “to remove” HTS from its terror blacklist — a step which Turkey itself is soon to take.
During a visit to Cairo on Thursday, Erdoğan was expected to encourage his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sissi to contact Syria’s new leadership, the Turkish press reported.
“If Ankara can — next — shepherd Syria’s stabilization, this influence will translate into Syria becoming a Turkish ally,” said Soner Çağaptay, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“Turkey now has more influence in Damascus than ever since 1920.”
Ally against Kurdish fighters?
But whether Ankara will be able to count on its new friends in Damascus to weed out the Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, whom it sees as a strategic threat to Turkey, remains an open question.
Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler on Sunday said Kurdish militants, who make up the bulk of the US-backed Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), “will be eliminated… sooner or later. Both we and the new administration in Syria want this.”
Turkey says the People’s Protection Units (YPG) — the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — is affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which has waged a decades-long war on Turkish soil.
HTS’ military chief told AFP on Tuesday the country’s new leadership would also rule over Kurdish-held areas, referring to a large semi-autonomous region in the north and northeast.
“The Turks would like to push HTS into striking at the Kurds but HTS doesn’t want to get involved,” said a Syria specialist who advises Western diplomats in Turkey, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Although Ankara’s role in Assad’s overthrow had been “overstated,” Turkey now has “real economic leverage” thanks to the 900-kilometre (560 miles) border it shares with Syria, the source said.
Yet Western nations are keen to prevent Ankara from establishing itself as an indispensable ally of Damascus.
European Union chief Ursula Von der Leyen on Tuesday pledged to intensify the bloc’s “direct engagement” with Syria’s new Islamist-led rulers following talks in Ankara with Erdoğan.
“While Turkey has become the most influential foreign actor in Syria, the United States still maintains significant leverage over the international legitimacy of the new Syrian government and funding for the country’s reconstruction,” said Ömer Özkızılcık, associate researcher at the Atlantic Council in Ankara.
How the situation develops will also depend on Trump, who takes office as US president on January 20 but has already decided that “Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria.”
© Agence France-Presse