The Turkish government has announced revised economic targets for the 2025-2027 period, lowering its growth forecast while raising inflation expectations, Turkish media reported on Thursday.
The adjustments, presented by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, are part of the new Medium-Term Program (OVP), which outlines the country’s economic strategy for the next three years.
The inflation target for 2024 was revised upward to 41.5 percent, a significant increase from the previously forecast 33 percent. Inflation estimates for 2025 and 2026 were also increased, now expected at 17.5 percent and 9.7 percent, respectively. These changes come as the government attempts to manage rising prices, despite earlier predictions of a faster decline in inflation rates.
The forecast for economic growth was reduced, with the 2024 projection lowered to 3.5 percent from the earlier 4 percent. Growth in 2025 is expected to reach 4 percent, and further improve to 4.5 percent in 2026 and 5 percent by 2027. This downward adjustment follows a period of high inflation and tightening financial policies aimed at stabilizing the economy.
In addition to the growth and inflation adjustments, the government revised its current account deficit target, aiming to reduce it to 1.7 percent of GDP by 2024. Employment projections also shifted, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 9.6 percent in 2025 before gradually improving to 8.8 percent by 2027.
In response to these revisions, economists have expressed concerns about the feasibility of meeting the government’s inflation and growth targets simultaneously. Critics argue that while the focus on lowering inflation is necessary, the projected growth rates may be overly optimistic, especially given the constraints posed by high inflation and tighter fiscal policies. Some experts also warn that the revised inflation targets could still be difficult to achieve, given the persistent economic challenges, including rising costs and global economic uncertainty.