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Survey shows lowest public support for Erdoğan’s party since it came to power in 2002

Supporters of Justice and Development Party (AKP) cheer as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan delivers a speech after the Turkish local elections at the AKP headquarters in Ankara on April 1, 2024. (Photo by Adem ALTAN / AFP)

Public support for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has hit its lowest level since the party came to power in 2002, currently standing at 26.1 percent, according to the results of a public survey by the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Research.

The results of MetroPOLL’s “Turkey’s Pulse” surveys for April, May, June and July, which were announced on Tuesday on X by Professor Özer Sencar, the owner of the company, showed that voter support for the AKP dropped from 20.6 percent to 18.1 percent from April to July before the distribution of undecided voters. It stands at 26.1 percent when undecided voters are included.

The support for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), however, was more stable, standing at 23.8 percent in April and 23.5 percent in July.

When undecided voters were distributed among the parties, the CHP’s support stood at 33.8 percent.

As part of the survey, respondents were asked which party they would vote for if a general election were to be held next Sunday. A total of 1,784 people from across 28 provinces took part in the survey.

The CHP was victorious in the latest local elections held on March 31, relegating the AKP to second place for the first time in 22 years. The CHP emerged as the leading party for the first time in 47 years, securing 37.7 percent of the vote, maintaining control of key cities and securing substantial gains in other regions, while the AKP came in second, garnering only 35.4 percent of the vote.

Posting a chart showing the results of its four surveys over the past four months on X on Tuesday, Sencar linked the declining level of public support for the AKP to the unhappiness among low-income earners, who are suffering from the high cost of living due to inflation, which stands above 70 percent.

Sencar said the AKP’s public support, without the distribution of undecided voters, has hit rock bottom for the first time since it came to power in November 2002.

Minimum wage earners were expecting the AKP government to make an interim increase in the minimum wage in July to align it with the increasing cost of living in the country.

However, the government disappointed them by refusing to make any increase and kept the minimum wage at 17,002 Turkish lira ($514) for 2024.

Another survey by MetroPOLL recently found that 81.3 percent of respondents believe the economy is poorly managed, with significant portions of the people who voted for the AKP and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), also expressing dissatisfaction.

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