S&P Global cut its 2022 GDP growth estimate for Turkey by more than 1 percentage point due to the effects of the war in Ukraine, Reuters reported on Sunday.
On its economic outlook for emerging markets for the next quarter, S&P Global said its base assumption was that “the conflict will have the most acute impact on commodity markets, supply chains, and investor and consumer confidence in the first and second quarters of 2022.”
The effects would lessen but linger in the rest of the year and beyond, it said.
S&P said countries in emerging Europe were the most exposed through trade, financing and confidence channels, while many energy importers were also hit by the spike in prices.
S&P cut Poland’s growth estimate by 1.4 percentage points to 3.6%, Turkey by 1.3 percentage points to 2.4% and South Africa by 0.5 percentage points to 1.9%. Russia’s was cut to an 8.5% contraction was from a prior view of a 2.7% expansion.
The downgrade to Turkey stems from dimming trade prospects and already slowing retail sales.
“Rising food and energy prices and the weaker currency will worsen an already dire inflation outlook,” S&P said, having estimated inflation at 55% this year.